Pavlik could come straight from the bar absolutely PLASTERED, and still knock the acne off Chumpez Jr's face.
The best thing Junior could hope for would be for Pavlik to knock him out in the first minute, and call it a "mercy killing." The problem with that is that's not how Pavlik stops people. You can usually see the KO coming about 2-3 rounds before it happens. The means Junior would get tortured. Bad idea for a fight.