Kelly to win by TKO within 5 rounds ... he has a point to prove and is back in at MW ... there were excuses on the BH fight night and dont think there will be any after Rubios looking at stars ... Pavlik is too good at the weight and only King Arthur or Paul Williams could put up any real battle at MW !
Rubio has a really good chin, but it's part of his arsenal which in this case wont' work. he can't let himself get hit by Pavlik like he normally does in a fight. he's fast, but not nearly as fast as taylor, so that shouldn't bother Pavlik too much. he clenches quite a lot, though not masterfully like Bhop, also not too much of a problem. i can't see this one going past 8 rounds, Pavlik TKO 8th.
Since I have tickets I wouldn't mind seeing it go a few rounds, but with Pavlik out to make a statement, I think Lockett's stock could go up after this fight. I've watched Pavlik/Taylor 2 back to back with Rubio/Ornales a few times. Unless Ornales turns defensive, I really beleive this one could be over very early.
Pavlik cut his teeth on guys like Rubio - straightforward brawlers. Rubio presents nothing he hasn't seen before. A decent puncher with a good beard. Pavlik is going for redemption in front of his hometown crowd and will probably close the show around the 7th or 8th.
