my mistake was misjudging Pavlik's stamina. To his credit he was still as strong in the 7th while I expected him to tire out at least as much as Taylor did, but in fact I really couldn't judge his stamina well since I only saw him in 1 fight and it ended relatively early. The fact is that usually when a fighter gets tired his jab gets sloppy and he can't keep his opponent in check as well as when he's got all his energy. Taylor's jab got sloppy, but Pavlik's didn't. that being said until the knockout, Taylor had Pavlik in his pocket and it looked like I was gonna get my $. Even though Taylor was jerking around ineffectively, Pavlik was simply too slow. The difference was that Taylor slowed down as the fight went on and Pavlik didn't. Also when Taylor got caught he tried to stay up and went against the ropes while if he had fallen and taken an eight count it would be a different story. Taylor is still very live if there's rematch, but seriously his stamina is shitty. Like Hopkins' trainor said in the early rounds of the 2nd fight: right now you're fighting a light heavyweight, in a few rounds he'll be a super middleweight, then in the middle of the fight he'll become a middleweight, and then after that he'll be a light middleweight and we'll knock him out. Hopkins doesn't have the power of Pavlik, but also Pavlik is crude and that's what made him almost get KTFO in the early rounds. the Judges' scores were dead on. I had Pavlik winning the first round clearly and then another close one.
Score were wayyyy off. Maybe a judge can argue for 6-2, but 5-1 by Julie Lederman noless was wayyyy off base....
Pavlik's stanima limit hasn't been measured by anyone except in private during training. He's never been beyond round 9. The closest he's been was in a brutal fight with Zuniga that lasted a full nine rounds. Pavlik was knocked down, I think, in that one as well. At the end of nine rounds Zuniga had taken enough punishment and declined to leave his corner. Ultimately I don't think it would have made a difference if Taylor had managed to get up in the 7th. His stanima was spent. Pavlik's accuracy had increased, Taylor's speed had decreased and if by some miracle Taylor somehow maged to survive 5 more rounds, there's a strong chance that Pavlik could have still pulled out a UD even taking into account how against him the judges scores were up to that point.
The "total punches connected" varied by a total of 3 per Compubox. Pavlik's jab was a power shot, and JT's was like a BB gun in comparison. Taylor could have been seriously hurt if he had gotten up because Pavlik was getting ready to unload the heavy stuff on him. The worst situation is when the champion is really hurt, and you have a hungry challenger with real power wanting to take the crown and the opportunity is right before him.
I agree. The 6th round already began to look like the beginning of the end. Tides were turning in the 6th. Taylor was fading while Pavlik was coming on stronger. I think the outcome would have been the same. Taylors real chance was the 2nd round.
