Berto style all wrong, Canelo TKO... add the fact he is losing some size by going to 154... Canelo would **** him.
If Berto actually boxed (which he rarely does anymore), I'd give him the UD win or even TKO. But... Berto as is fights like an idiot. He would stand toe to toe with Canelo and get battered to death.
Educated movement is the key to beating Alvarez IMO. Subtle half steps backwards and to the sides, change the angle of the exchange on him and move laterally and he looks like a dear lost in the headlights. Dictate the dynamic of the fight to him and you'll have the upper-hand. Gomez did this. Then you need to have the authority on your shots. Berto can't do that IMO, Ortiz could.
I favour Gingerpussy because he's the superior boxer and it's his weight class but Berto winning by stoppage would be far from a surprise. Berto has now had quite a bit of championship-level experience and his hands are fast as ****, he's got pop, and though I don't rate him too highly, the kid is brave as ****. He's not the sharpest tool in the shed, but he's got heart. Not a particularly good boxer, but he can fight. He'd be a much better challenge than Canelo has dealt with, thus far, in my opinion.