Porter +900 via decision over Crawford. Value?

I'd be more tempted to go for the ko...I don't think he'd win a decision if he deserved it so I'd probably put less money on porter to stop him 7-13 n hopefully take bud into deep waters

 

Those odds are worth a bet....I'll mortgage the house this afternoon.

 

I'd bet on the fight going over 9.5 rounds, but never for Porter to win. If it goes the distance Porter will absorb a lot of punishment.

 

I think Crawford will stop Porter, who imo is shopworn given all the battles he's fought.

 

That's great value for people who think Porter will win. I might put something on it because that's a good number.

 

It is easy to predict controversial decisions.

Should Porter win 6-8 rounds on most scorecards from this forum, for example, it seems like Crawford is certain to still win the judges hearts.

 

Yeah, always factor the politics into a bet. Bud being the house fighter, Porter likely has to win a lot of rounds emphatically to get the nod here.

 

Value bets are always emotional rather than logical and it's emotion that bookies play on. These kind of odds are just the worm on the hook...

 

they have an idea about how the betting will go. obviously they feel lots of bets will come in on crawford, so they set the odds to make them more attractive to porter bettors. as porter bets start to accumulate, the odds are adjusted again to try to balance bets and payouts, so they dont have to make payouts from the juice they are collecting. odds dont really tell you how they think the fight will go, they tell you how they think the betting will go.

 

I know odds-setting is highly scientific and mathematical - although I can't pretend to know the specifics. I'm pretty sure, though, if they think - in the case of boxing - both fighters aren't going to attract much money, they're prepared to deviate from the formula to tempt people who look for 'value bets'.

This fight is a great example: The odds on Crawford will be largely prohibitive and Porter's chances of winning unlikely, but he's a live dog and has a resume which shows he's competitive at elite level but a step or two short of being elite himself. Acquiring a slew of speculative bets on Porter by dangling attractive odds would appear to me their best way of maximising revenue. It kick starts the market.

And I hear it all the time: 'I can't turn down those odds, they're too good to refuse'. I'll turn them down though. I think he will lose...

 

yes, if they went with the odds of probability of what actually has a chance of happening, they would set them between 4-1 and 2-1, which are closer to how they match up given their histories. but then they wouldnt get near enough bets on porter to pay out the bets on bud.
i look at odds the same way when im playing poker. if my hand has a 1 in 5 chance of hitting on the next card, then im gonna win only once out of every 5 times i face this situation, so i need 5 times the bet in the pot already for the bet to have value in the long run. anything less and i end up losing money over the long haul. so if you look at the odds being discussed, they are saying that porter stands to win once every nine times he faces crawford. if you think porter would win more than once in 9 tries, then the bet has value across your betting career. as a one time bet it might not make as much sense, cause you arent giving yourself the chance for the odds to catch up and net you those 2 wins you think porter would get in 9 tries.

 

porter is good but does he ever beat the top guys now? no he does not. He is being overrated a bit. He will give him fits but he will lose and probably be knocked down in the fight. He is a smart experienced tough fighter with a lot of spirit, but not much power.

 

I missed a great bet last time with Anthony Dirrell and Canelo by KO. I did not think Dirrell would get the ko because someone said the other guy might beat him in an upset.

I think Porter could be better than he actually is if he left his father sometime ago and got a trainer who'd refine his abilities and give him a smarter gameplan. His style is predictable but effective it's just he needs a bit more refinement and tweaking i think to take him to that extra level which i don't think his father can do. It's probably too late to teach a dog new tricks at this point.

I think Porter actually plays to Crawford's strengths but i could easily be wrong given the circumstances. Porter seems to be doing podcasts and other media events where Crawford seems primarily focused and is a workhorse in the gym. I think some people believe Crawford hasn't fought the best competition at 147 but i think Mean Machine was a decent scalp to have under his belt. He's also destroying guys who may be past it but were once highly regarded as world class operators like Kell Brook and Amir Khan.

 

Its laughable to think that Porter will grind out a decision & betting that outcome when everyone knows the likely result...
















Porter by bRutAl KO!

 

If you want to waste your money it is. Crawford has this easy.