Predict the PPV buys for these upcoming fights...

Trinidad vs. Jones in January - Given the name vaule alone and a certain nostalgic feeling by the fans in both camps, I think this fight will do somwhere in between 400 and 500 000 buys. I'm estimating this based on the fact that Trinidad's last fight againt Winky Wright did over 500 000 buys and Jones last big fight against Tarver did over 400 000 buys. While both are diminished in the public eye, when you combine them together, I think they can stay in that area.

Pavlik vs Taylor II in February - This is a tough one to call. Taylor has fought on PPV twice against Hopkins and cracked the 400 000 buy mark in the rematch. Pavlik, obviously, just burst onto the scene and while he's garnered a lot of hype within the boxing community, he's still relatively unknown to casual sports fans. The first fight was on regular HBO though, so a lot of casual fans got to see a great war. I'd say this fight will do between 350 and 400 000 buys.

Pacqiauo vs. Marquez II in March - Another tough one to call. Pacqiauo vs. Barrera in October did 350 000 buys, but then again Barrera was thought to be a bigger name than Marquez so a lot of those buys would have come from his fanbase. Marquez did beat Barrera earlier in the year and a lot of people remember his great war with Pacman from 2004, but is that enough for them to match the 350 000 buys?? Hard to say, I think it will do about 350 000. That seems to be Pacqiauo's plateau. He did similar numbers against Morales.

Calzaghe vs. Hopkins possibly in April - Another hard one to call. Calzaghe has never headlined a PPV in America before and has had very little exposure up until the Kessler fight (at least in terms of HBO exposure). Apparently that fight did horrible ratings on HBO. Of course Hopkins is a big name, and if they do a 24/7 on it, I could see it becoming a sort of mini-Mayweather/Hatton again, with the whole American vs. British angle. Obviously it would be a massive fight in England, but in America I think it will do about 350 000 to 400 000 ppv buys. I came to this figure by looking at the fact Hopkins did about 350 000 against Wright this year and about 350 000 buys against Tarver last year.

Anyway, if those PPVs all perform how I expect them, that will be a pretty strong start to 2008 for boxing. Keep in mind Oscar will be fighting someone in May as well. If it's Cotto, I'd expect 1 million + PPV buys for that fight. I personally hope it's Margarito. If that's the case, maybe he'd get about 850 000 buys. Mayweather vs. Cotto would likely top the 1 million mark in the US considering Cotto is a bigger draw in America than Hatton was going into the Mayweather fight.

 

I don't know. I think you're selling boxing fans short here, as far as the Taylor/Pavlik fight goes. It's not often you have a middleweight championship fight between two undefeated fighters that turns out that good. I think with enough buzz it should be able to at least break into the 300 000 area.

BTW, does anyone know if HBO will be doing a 24/7 for any of these?? Pavlik/Taylor II and Calzaghe/Hopkins would make the most sense. I think those shows are responsible for adding at least 25% more buys to the fights, if not more. If they do a 24/7 for Pavlik/Taylor I think it could reach 500 000 territory.

 

There isn't a heavyweight card that could be made that would be PPV worthy. I don't care if you put every top 10 heavyweight on the same card fighting each other, I still wouldn't pay for it.

 

I think it will do a lot more than 550k combined. Maybe 550k in England alone, seeing as Hatton did about 900 000 buys in England.