Predicting an ultra-close / split decision in a fantasy fight

How much sense does it make to predict a razor-thin or split decision victory for a fighter in a fantasy fight?

This happens surprisingly often in fantasy fight threads, and seems odd. Split decisions are, by definition, so close that things might have gone either way. You could just as easily have predicted a split decision to go in the opposite direction with no change in analysis; picking the winner in such circumstances would seem a coin flip, not a firm pick.

 

To be clear, I see nothing odd about predicting a fight being really close. Some fights, like Norton against an elite mobile boxer like Ali or Holmes, are just destined to be close. "It'll be a coinflip," is a legit prediction.

I do think it's odd to predict a specific fighter winning by razor-thin decision. You're essentially saying, "It'll be a coin flip, and this specific guy wins the coinflip."

 

Ah. I think I see what you mean.

I totally agree that people predict split decision wins in real life fights as well. I happen to think those predictions don't make much sense either.

I grant you that there's technically nothing impossible about predicting a SD win due to being a skilled predictor (rather than luck).

In practice, though, I don't think people are capable of making fine-grained enough predictions to forecast which side would win an SD ahead of time. It's hard enough to predict clear wins by stoppage or crushing UD.

(Unless you suspect that one side will actually win, but be robbed with a fishy SD or draw to make it look less suspicious, I suppose.)

 

Ha! Yes, I see what you mean.

I remember trying to poll the most successful posters about what methods they used to pick fights in the gambling threads, hoping to get something that I could import into Classic discussions. But they basically seemed to do the same thing we do here, except with fewer Fleischer quotes.