I initially thought that but then tua was never quick on his feet and his hands have never been quick . Fury could go on his bike and jab I all night and get a points although I do favour tua it could well be closer than you suggest
Tua has often been befuddled by a decent jab and may struggle to find such a tall opponent like Fury. But Fury rarely sticks to his boxing and all too often gets drawn in and even if he can stayed disciplined he isn't facing a light puncher like Chisora but a puncher that can light him up and have him out cold with one left hook. I suspect Tua does what he has done on a few occasions and scores a late KO while behind on points.
Prime David Tua vs Prime Mike Tyson, that's the real Tua vs Tyson question, not Fury. It's a shame they never fought, the sheer power of punches thrown in that fight could create a quake somewhere in the world.