That's the problem with fantasy match up. Everyone has their own opinion. No one is right, no one is wrong. We'll never know. I'm leaning towards Donaire on this one.
I go with Pen in an UD. I still think Nonito is not experience enough to deal with experience technical fighters. Also, I think ESB is suffering from HFRKO (Hype From a Recent KO - see Pac/Hatton, Martinez/Williams, Mosley/Marg). In a year or two I reserve the right to change my mind.
I actually think, Donaire has the build, the height, and enough pure boxing ability to frustrate Penalosa and Nonito can win a decision. Penalosa's a great technician, a great beard, superb fighting spirit and defensive skills, but he's not very long limbed and has problems against rangy boxers who fight tall and fight outside. I think Donaire can give him tough problems to solve inside 12 rounds, if he fights using a perfect gameplan.
And also against a couple of good, rangy asian (Korean) boxers he faced in the 1990's-early 2000's. He handled the punches well, he boxed well, but some of his punches seemed to be an inch short of connecting, full power. Some complete misses too.
Donaire by decision, his physical attributes and boxing skills can easily bring him a UD decision as long as he doesn't get cocky. Gerry's a live dog till the end and very patient, a little too patient some times though