Hearns by knockout of course and early. However, Pavlik has a very marginal chance to catch Hearns on the button, seeing as Hearns didn't have the best chin in history and Pavlik's size and power fit perfectly in a potential upset. I'd say Hearns by 95% chance of victory IMO. Round 3 knockout.
Well, lets see more of Pavlick before we can compare him to guys like Hearns. Offhand though he would appear to have a better chin.Thats a good start.