Earnie probably gasses after knocking Primo down eight or nine times, and then Primo flails away at him until it's stopped.
Hard to know. Another slugger with a monstrous overhand right in Baer, of course, demolished Carnera, but Baer was a lot more durable than Shavers and was taller and rangier. I would say either Shavers starts fast, overwhelms Carnera and stops him within eight, or Carnera establishes distances, bullies Shavers with his mass and takes him out in the later rounds.
I usually support Carnera as being a better bet than most judge in these fantasy matchups, but Shavers is the type of big hitter who gave Carnera trouble. If Leroy Haynes could stop Carnera, Shavers should also. A key might be whether the fight is held under 1970's rules or 1930's. If it is the rules of the 30's, Carnera might survive a hellacious beating to wear Earnie down. A later referee would probably stop it. I do think this is a close call and Carnera might win it as other posters have suggested.
If you're going to support Carnera, then maybe you should consider that Haynes stopped Primo when he was at the tail end of his career, after being ko'ed by Baer and Louis. These hypothetical matches are supposed to be at the relative peaks of each fighter's careers so the Haynes loss would be factored out when evaluating Primo. Carnera would most likely be decked by Earnie at some point, but as he did against both Baer and Louis, he displayed a ton of heart, and didn;t roll over for either man. It would be possible that through sheer heart, he would survive Shaver's thunder, and would have mounted his own resistance by staying away from Shavers and using that great size and reach of his to last the distance and maybe even taking advantage of Shaver's lack of stamina to even win a decision.
Carnera did not need the mob to beat three top five ranked contenders then brutaly KO the champion. He also beat some world class oponents after the mob dropped him.