What an interesting fight! Carenera is the more vulnerable of the two but I wonder if he couldn't ache his way to a close points win? I think that's the way i'd lean.
I'd go with Carnera by UD. Lyle is perceived as a big hitter, and certainly he was a big, strong man, but who did he actually stop? The only one i can think of is Ernest Shavers, who pretty much had a glass jaw anyway. And his usual size/strength advantage would actually be a disadvantage against Carnera, who has better wins than Lyle.
I'm probably going to regret this ,but here goes.Max Baer who was a far superior hitter to Lyle, had Primo on the deck multiple times yet it took him 11 rds to stop the giant,Carnera was not a great fighter but he was game,I don't see Lyle stopping him early at all .Lyle was a good puncher ,but his ko resume over TOP MEN is VERY thin.
Lyle destroys him in a few rounds ... Max Baer was not a much bigger hitter than Lyle. I question if Baer was even as big a hitter as Lyle ...
C P ,why do we keep taking the bait?My excuse is ,I'm the "Old fool There's No Fool Like",what's yours?
Apart from Earnie Shavers who was kod 7 times ,Lyle kod NO RANKED fighters.Baer kod Carnera,Schaaf [for 3 minutes] Heeney,Campbell[who died].Floored Farr twice ,something Louis couldn't do,and ,when aging ,and past it stopped Comiskey and Galento.I don't think there are many posters who would agree with you ,certainly not me.
Those were all ranked top contenders of the era. How many top contenders of his era did Lyle KO? Right one.