Principles of Warfare: Applied to Mayweather vs. Paquiao

Some pre-fight thoughts.

Principles of Warfare​

Mass:
This can be thought of in terms of power. See results of common opponents, number of knockdowns in recent years, etc. Manny hits harder and/or brings his power to bear much more effectively than ANYONE Floyd has ever fought.

Objective:
Gameplan. Should be clear and defined. Both fighters have their own way of winning rounds and stealing breaks. Neither fighter is known to go all in seeking a knockout unless the opportunity presents itself. I do not think highly of mayweather's corner in terms of gameplan. Their strategy always seems to be "be better than the other guy and win 7 rounds." Tactics are left up to Floyd to improvise on the fly, which is why he usually loses the early rounds while getting his bearings on the timing/range. Pacquiao tends to come in with a defined gameplan from Roach. However, he FREQUENTLY seems to disregard it and get lazy (see: Bradley I and JMM III). However, this won't be an issue in a fight of this magnitude. I give the pre-planning advantage to Roach/Manny.

Security
This is secondary to offense, but offense cannot exist without some kind of security (see JMM IV). Mayweather is top 3 in the world p4p when it comes to maintaining security. He very rarely loses a round BIG, and he NEVER goes on the offensive to the extent of becoming defensively irresponsible. If he secures an advantage, he exploits it safely and is always content to back off and settle for another round in the bank. Very responsible fighter, whereas Manny relies on offense to provide his defense. Advantage to Mayweather.

Economy
Fight pacing. "Everything for a reason." As stated, Mayweather usually does the bare minimum necessary to win 7 rounds. When he moves, he moves with a purpose. Pacquiao expends a lot of extra energy and can often appear to be wasting time and movement (see Bradley I/JMM III). If Manny has a round won, he will often try to win it even bigger by beating on his opponent and going for a knockdown. This can pay off big, but every so often (JMM IV) it can be catastrophic. Neither fighter is known to gas, though both have been more conscious about pacing in recent years. Advantage Mayweather.

Maneuver
Positioning and angles. Ties to offensive. This is about putting yourself in a position to deliver your offense while remaining safe. Mayweather has good footwork, but he's most comfortable these days as a pocket fighter. This is fine against most fighters, but Manny thrives on changing the angle and forcing the opponent to reset, react, and move when and where they don't want to (or receive the Mass of his Offensive to the side of their head). Manny is the more dynamic mover and he is still one of the best in boxing at the angles game.

Unity of Command
Not as relevant to one-on-one combat, but...you could call it focus or singleness of purpose. And we all know it's not good for a fighter to have multiple people in his ear during a fight. I have never liked seeing how Roach allowed Buboy and Ariza to talk to Manny so much between rounds. Mayweather is THE boss in his camp, and if anybody's speaking to him it's his dad/uncle and MAYBE Ellerbe gently whispering sweet dirty talk into his ear. But I see Mayweather as the more focused fighter, right down to his lifestyle.

Simplicity
This is tough to see because both fighters are so technical and advanced. Much of this has to do with gameplan. Chris Algieri's Cage Strategy was a bit over-thought. Mayweather seems to follow a gameplan of: Stay safe until you get the timing down. Then win 7 rounds and shut down once the round is won. Pacquiao seems to rely on more specific tactics. What I'm saying is Mayweather seems to use principles to win fights, while Pacquiao seems to go out and try to do certain things in certain rounds. That would give the advantage here to Mayweather.

USMC Operating Principles​

"Hit the other fellow, as quick as you can, as hard as you can, where it hurts him most, when he ain't looking."

Targeting Critical Vulnerabilities
Both fighters are excellent at this. Mayweather not only targets these vulnerabilities, he is able to discover and exploit them during the fight. Manny also does this, but he relies on pre-fight planning. This is not a weakness, but the fact that Mayweather figures the fight out DURING the fight is impressive. On the other hand, the fact that Manny goes into the fight with a defined plan might explain why Mayweather tends to lose more rounds than Pacquiao, especially early in the fight. Could also explain how Pacquiao scores so many knockdowns/dominant performances/shutouts while Mayweather tends to drop 3-5 rounds. I think that Mayweather might be BETTER at this, but Pacquiao actually DOES it. Advantage Pacquiao.

Boldness
Sometimes you just have to go for it. Manny is at least 1000x better in this department.

Surprise
Both fighters are masters of landing shots that the opponent doesn't see and doesn't expect. Both are masters at breaking their rhythm. These guys are both extremely high level fighters. They're the equivalent of 10th-Degree Grand Masters in boxing. Both guys RELY on surprise. Manny uses his in-out rhythm combined with angles and a southpaw advantage. Floyd relies more on technical setups to achieve surprise. Both are great at it and I can't separate them here.

Focus
Mayweather hands down. Mayweather ALWAYs stays responsible an never gets in trouble because of getting carried away. Pacquiao, on the other hand...not so much. Also. just look at their lifestyles. Mayweather is the more focused fighter.

Decentralized Decision-Making
A fighter who can think on his feet. This advantage is heavly in favor of Mayweather. I do not believe his corner uses actual gameplans. They allows mayweather to use his superior boxing brain and experience to make adaptations and read the situation on the fly. Pacquiao does not seem to be notably good at this. Not that he's not adaptable, but Mayweather actually RELIES on adaptability while Pacquiao relies on strategy from the corner.

Rapid Tempo:
Constant initiative. The fighter who can keep acting at a faster pace generally wins. This usually comes down to the fighter who is able to mentally process the situation faster and maintain the initiative. Big advantage to Pacquiao here.

Combined Arms
The ability to threaten the opponent in multiple ways. In boxing, this usually means the ability to land to the head and body from many angles. It's difficult to defend against a fighter who makes you do more than simply hold your hands up. Pacquiao is better than Mayweather at threatening/landing from various angles, and he goes upstairs and downstairs. Mayweather is also good at this but Manny is much more unorthodox, and we've seen this give Mayweather problems from much lesser fighters.

Mass: Pacquiao
Objective: Pacquiao
Security: Mayweather
Economy: Mayweather
Maneuver: Pacquiao
Unity of Command: Mayweather
Simplicity: Mayweather
Targeting Critical Vulnerabilities: Pacquiao
Boldness: Pacquiao
Surprise: Even
Focus: Mayweather
Decentralized Decision-Making: Mayweather
Rapid Tempo: Pacquiao
Combined Arms: Pacquiao
*Removed Offensive and Surprise from Principles of Warfare

Commentary:
This is one of those fights that's intriguing because it puts two master boxers with completely opposite styles/strategies/strengths in the ring. I favor offensive fighters so I'm leaning toward Pacquiao (also basing this off common opponents, southpaw advantage, and their performances in their last few fights). Wild card is if both fighters come in top shape. A Mayweather with the legs he used to have might totally dominate the Manny of the last few years, while a focused Pacquiao with the energy to press the pedal down for 12 rounds would almost certainly overwhelm the Mayweather we've seen lately.