I think the amount of punches Pac is able to throw will be a good sign of how much of a chance he stands (barring a ko from either fighter) I would say roughly: 800> Pac has an excellent chance of winning <600 very little chance In between would mean probably a competitive fight. Mayweathers output is less relevant because he doesn't win fights that way. Anyone thinking he is going to change his style for this fight(other than maybe more high guard) is delusional.