Putting money on Wlad stoppage after presser

I know all that mate...I've been around the block. What I'm saying is the bookies always, repeat always, stack the odds in their favor quite heavily statistically. It's very hard to get great value, and the things that are great value tend to be markets with little money on them that the bookies aren't worried about.

The best way to know this is to bet regularly. To beat them in the long run you don't just have to know a bit, you have to be seriously analytical and I don't think many people realize what their own profit/loss is over a long duration. This is due to the price edge. To beat it you have to be very good.

 

So you've posted about 500 times on this topic making all manner of declarations and now you've decided to consider styles FLINT?

Better late than never buddy

 

Nows the time - things get serious.

 

I see the 6/4 odds being a result of the amount of bets British people have been placing on Haye.

Personally I would have Have at somewhere around 5/2 or 3/1 without being too scientific about it.


In the UK the bets on Haye will far outweigh the bets on Wlad. Thats normal because people bet with their hearts and not their head when it comes to an internation contest.

The bookies only really have two outcomes on this:

1. Haye wins and they lose almost everything bet on the fight and payout at 6/4.

2. They make a killing if Haye loses.


I don't see any middle ground. They will have other events and will have a big computer program that will calculate their exposure and they will make a call on it. If too much money comes in for Haye and they get scared they will spread the risk amongst other bookies.


For this fight I think the bookies will believe the odds are very much in their favour and they will expect a Wlad win.

 

I think Haye could win if he actually threw more punches, and wasnt so sloppy..the problem is i have to go on past evidence...and he was sloppy versus Ruiz and Barret (wild swings) and had a real low punch volume versus Valuev and Harrison.

Valuev and Ruiz are his only top 10 wins...this all a sticker...and both performances were just so.

Barrett and Harrison are/were outside the top 25 heavies in the world.


I think Haye has huge ability but it has not be realized, trust me...having 4 fights from March 2008 until now is poor, your not going to improve...he has stayed the same fighter.

There is one reason this is a 50/50 fight...Wladimir cant take a huge shot...if Wladimir had the whiskers of a Ruiz or even a Peter...or even lets think here...a Matt Skelton...then Haye would not be in this fight..but Wladimir Achilles his chin.

 

Exactly. Bookies stack in their favour over time, not individual events. You keep gambling and in the long run you lose. If punters lost every time they bet bookies would be out of business in no time. Keep them coming back is the golden rule.

 

I just hope Haye arrives at the Hamburg Arena in something better than a Vauxhall Bloody People Carrier.

And I hope Adam Booth dosent park up outside some fast food outlet on the way to the arena for Haye to scoff his chops. :nono

I want to see some professionalism for such a big fight.

 

Bookies give themselves the edge but it is not that big maybe 10% as I said before.

The thing with bookies is that they are very good at making odds and generally don't give away too much in the way of generous odds.

I agree with you that the punters job is to spot when the bookies have got it wrong the rare time that they do.

The best gamblers are the ones that have access to information before the bookies do.

 

Defensively Haye was always going to struggle with the smaller more aggressive heavyweights like Ruiz and Barrett, who are also fairly sprightly on their feet for heavies and can close in on him. Just like he was given torrid times by the likes of Fragomeni and Mormeck at cruiserweight.

Haye was always a cruiserweight with the punching volume of a heavyweight. In other words, he's suited to the type of jousting gentlemenly chess match that will most likely unfold on Saturday night. He will be right at home posturing and posing, ducking in and out, and waiting to uncoil a right or left on Klitschko's cranium.

Wlad has big power and good speed, no doubt about that, but I think Haye will be more effective at reading his 'classical' combinations and punches than he would against a stout, volume punching crude cruiser.

Offensively, Wlad will suit him as well. Valuev was just too big and tall for Haye to tag with real comfort and fluidity, but Wlad will be perfect for him and he'll be able to get punches off far more easier than that fight. The fact that it's unlikely Klitschko will try and catch him on the way in will also allow him to throw more punches with abandon. He'll only have to worry about being held.

 

Thanks fella.

Id love Haye to do it, and id love to be proved wrong.....it would be so good for people on here to come back and say 'na na na you were wrong'.

BUT im pretty good at predicating results (although to be fair i thought Pascal was gonna win against Hopkins)...and 9 times out of 10 im usually right..

Ive been really close to Haye results....over the years..alot of people thought he would lose to Mormeck and Macca...i said he would be both.

Predicated------------------Real result

Wkor7 Mormeck--------------Wkor7 Mormeck
Wkor4 Macca-----------------Wkor2 Macca
Wkor4 Barrett----------------Wkor5 Barrett
Wkor9 Valuev-----------------WUD12 Valuev
Wkor5 Ruiz-------------------Wkor9 Ruiz
Wkor1 Harrison----------------Wkor3 Harrison

Lkor9 W. Klitshcko

Early on is Haye carrer i was impressed when he took out guys like Tony Booth on his debut...no one takes out Tony Booth on there pro debuts...yet he did in style...lots of his fights were delayed on the BBC etc.

I was there for his fights against Lasse Johnson, Macca and will be there for the Wlad fight. Ive seen him up close, so i know him pretty well...seen every fight he has had as pro bar the playboy mansion one.

The main gripe was he stalled on his performance level since the Macca fight, relying on talent...speed, reflexes and major league power.

From a technical stand point he has not improved at least not when it comes to fight night.

His stamina has not improved, instead Booth and Haye have adopted a strategy where David cannot throw more than 24 or 26 punches...listen to the Barrett fight where Adam tells Haye in between rounds he hasnt thrown above 24 or 26 punches....they adopted this style because of what happened with C. Thompson.

Whilst he has kept on winning, the main concern is for a man with his talent and ability he should have had better results against Valuev, Ruiz and Harrison.

For example Valuev had not fought for one year against anyone...and his last performance he lost to E. Holyfield and before that lost to Ruiz.

I dont care what the judges said...i saw the fights entirely...he lost both in my mind.

Ruiz himself had just 3 fights in 2 yrs, and one door in retirement when he took Haye...Ruiz was average high achiever in his prime, even less so as a past it don king fighter.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y3TCQlEwRc[/ame]

 

What im saying is I cant read the bull**** hype, for me its to look at what they have actually done in past fights.

E. Chambers is soooooooo underrated, the man has better upper body movement than Haye, and is just as fast....but he dosent have Haye power, body and good looks.

Chambers opponents are just as good if not better than Haye-

A.Povetkin (lost a close decision)
S.Peter
A. Dimtrenko

Chagaev is another really good fighter...some of the opponents are a step above what Haye taken on.

Hence why i belive Wlad will just wear him down and take him out.

 

The problem is Haye should not struggle against Barrett and Ruiz... these men are average in the grand scheme of things.

Roy Jones jnr performance was far cleaner against Ruiz, John got so many lucky decision in his prime, that i cant over look and for me David should have taken him out far cleaner..it was messy.

Barrett is a gatekeeper and dangerous one but only for prospects...in the grand scheme of things he is average.

If Haye struggled with a Tua or Tommy Morrison...then fair enough...but Ruiz and Barrett...you should take out with ease if your elite.

 

haye looked so tense

never tenser

could all go a bit frank spencer

 

Haye struggled against these guys? TKO 5 - first heavyweight fight and TKO 9 - dominated. Try harder :hi:

 

Chambers doesn't have Haye's power. Exactly.

I think the people picking Haye to win are fairly certain Haye's power is going to turn Klitschko into Raggedy Andy pretty sharpish, and thus weaken his overall boxing 'constitution', leading to Haye being able to hit him more easily as the fight progresses.

I think those predicting a Klitschko victory believe he'll be Enrique Suave throughout the whole fight, and be as hard to hit in the twelfth round as he will be in the first. I think he'll unravel pretty quickly.

The hard thing for Haye will be making that initial indentation on Wlad's chin and psyche.