I'm trying to make a simple mathematical model that extracts the (Bayesian) probabilities of a boxer winning, losing, or drawing from available gambling odds. Doing this is probably not very difficult, but definitely less straightforward than one would initially think, because bookmakers add a vig, causing the implied probabilities to inflate. Now, FanDuel for example lists Naoya Inoue as a -1300 favorite over Marlon Tapales, who is listed at +720. The option for a draw is not included here. But, what happens if I bet on Naoya Inoue and a draw occurs (unlikely to happen, of course)? Is this counted as a win, do I simply get my money back, or is this counted as a loss?
Not sure about America but in the UK pretty sure it's a loss as draw is usually its own market. In terms of bookies adding a vig you could use an exchange to get more accurate odds but would only work on bigger events and close to the time
Betting is straight forward, you pick someone to win and they don't, you lose. If a draw occurs, your guy did not win.
