I understand that in theory Sergio will "box" JCC Jr ext, and on paper I agree with the premise. Where I come to an impass is how does Sergio keep this from turning into an "ugly" fight and/or a brawl? Is he gonna clinch, tie up, and attempt to reset or try and be on his toes and mobile all fight?
I think he'll tie Chavez up on the ropes and he'll keep pivoting out. Serigo isn't really known to get caught on the ropes for long. Plus I think Sergio will meet Chavez with a flurry of punches each time he comes forward like Pac vs Margarito
What people conveniently forget, is that Sergio regularly tries to brawl when he gets into exchanges as he's not a pure boxer. He didn't try it too much with Pavlik until he was cut up, but by then Pavlik wasn't/couldn't fire back much. My point is, he's more confident in his power these days and is definitely more prone to exchange in spots. It will happen several times in this fight, and it will be Chavez's greatest opportunity.
Martinez has been in a war with Paul Williams. Someone who throws punches like a whirlwind. What does he have to worry about with a guy who couldnt stop Rubio or Zbik ?
I think he's going to sit down on his punches a bit to get Jr.'s respect. He could try to turn him all night, which is going to be a big focus obviously, but failing to implement other tactics could hurt him. He's not a bad inside fighter himself; he keeps things tight and can duck low under taller opponents when chest-to-chest. It was hard to imagine him ever out-running Williams, and that's not what he did; he went right back throwing punches and forcing Williams back. He can't stay there on the inside long, since Jr. will always be able to bully him where he pleases, but if he counters him in the pocket from time to time with hard punches, he can hurt Jr., or at the very least, make him tentative and fear counter-punches. The biggest determinant of this fight is going to be who can control the range and angles.
When Martinez says he's willing to go to war, then he's willing to go to war. I don't think he's afraid of Chavez at all, I think he'll strap up and go toe to toe with Chavez.
I can see this being like Cotto-Margarito I...I don't question Martinez's talent, skill, and/or ability. In scenario one (clinch, reset) I don't know that he's physically strong enough to tie Chavez up consistently...he runs the risk of "trying" to tie up and getting caught with hooks that could be problematic. In the second scenario (on his toes and mobile) don't know that he has the stamina to withstand the pressure for the whole 12 rounds. Either way, he better hope his power is what he thinks it is, because when he gets lured into exchanges and/or starts getting tired...he could get into some serious trouble. I have no doubt Sergio can outbox JCC Jr, what I question is can he keep Julio off him and withstand Juniors offense.
I believe this, but it's bout the stupidest thing he could do...I think he's grossly underestimating what JCC Hr brings to the table, and he doesn't respect him, this could be Sergio's downfall.
i think Martinez will generally stay on the outside as much as he can, but JCC jr does a good job as a pressure fighter. He will go in if he sees opportunity to do damage, or if he sees JCCjr is hurt from a counter left... Martinez's footwork will slow down in mid rounds (to conserve stamina/strength for the late rounds push) and its going to be more of an inside war but Sergio will be able to handle it.... he'll look to weaken JCCjr Sergio will pick up pace in the later rounds (as he always does to close out strongly for judging), use footwork, and will start to create a bit more space to drop down power effectively for a later round stoppage...
IMO, this will be the only chance JCCjr will win, if Sergio fails to respect what JCCjr brings to the table and underestimates him... ~ Respect thine enemy and never underestimate thine enemy, less you be KTFO'd!!! (ala Mike Jones - that'll learn ya, pilgrim!)
It comes down to two things. Does Chavez Jr have the lungs of his father? Against Lee he showed patience, probably too much patience. I'd rather have seen him show more activity. If he can't keep up an intense enough activity then I suspect Martinez will ultimately out-work him. However, the concern for Martinez is Chavez's power. I believe Chavez Jr is a very strong, big, heavy-handed MW. If Martinez thought Pavlik had monstrous power, I don't see how he won't feel and be affected by Chavez's blows. Chavez will be throwing hard shots and getting up near his chest, unlike Pavlik. Watching the 24/7 sparring segments, it appears Martinez is preparing himself for an in-close battle if that's something that he isn't capable of escaping. Basically, I'm concerned for Martinez durability. He hasn't had to take too many clean, powerful shots, and this could be a factor as Chavez should find a way to land. If Martinez forces Chavez to respect him early, this could not be much of a factor. So lungs, power, and will are going to be the biggest factors as we know size and boxing skill/ability are advantages each side possesses. I'm gunning for Martinez but believe Chavez will win by stoppage. I really haven't analyzed and broken the fight down at all. It's mostly a sense... I actually have a gut feeling that Chavez will stop Martinez (Probably ref stoppage). It may be controversial and it may create repeated threads about Martinez's lack of durability.