Considering Mercer was faster and had a head of granite, he has a great chance to win, but considering he never won over a top, except Morrison, as much as he was a top, I'll go for 50:50.
Joyce has yet to beat any top names either. Mercer fought a good version of Lennox Lewis on even terms, and that was a Mercer who was out of shape aswell. Whilst Mercer doesn't have any great wins, his peak level is a handful for most Heavyweights. Mercer is also a better boxer than Joyce with a very good jab, he out jabbed one of the best in Lennox Lewis. I'm going with Mercer by decision unless Joyce proves me wrong later on in his career, I still think Joyce is very overhyped atm and cracks could show vs Zhang.
Yeah people have gone a bit OTT with Joyce, whilst the Parker fight was a decent performance. Parker is not a top Heavyweight, hes always been a bit below the very top guys. I'm actually interested to see the Zhang fight, people think Joyce's chin is unbreakable. I'm curious to see how he reacts when Zhang hits him flush.
Joyce has been knocked down several times in the amateurs, and if Zhang catches him cleanly, it could be fatal for Joyce, in this fight we will actually see what kind of chin Joyce has, because he has never met someone with power like Zhang in his professional career...
Mercer, in a rubber match? Nobody is knocking any remotely decent version of him down. That chin was half the reason he was dangerous at his best -- he was well aware of his durability, so he took risk after risk, even against big punchers, trusting that if/when he was caught it wouldn't be a big deal. Give him a real fear of being KO'd and he'd never have fought Lewis the way he did, for example.
Mercer was a late bloomer and Joyce is an EXTREMELY late bloomer. Joyce is the bigger man by far. Mercer showed a ton of heart. Neither were/are masters of the sweet science. Both probably fought comparable opposition while having under 20 fights. Not sure who I’d take.
We live in a day & age of instant world-wide communication & gratification, I guess it would be unnatural if there wasn't a tendency towards earlier hype than normal. We hear it all the time - "is (recent) fighter x the goat? could he beat srr? etc etc. We need to see what JJ does for the rest off his career. Who knows, maybe one day we'll be wondering if Joyce would've beaten Ali.
Joyce is a guy who hasn't achieved that much, but he may have a high ceiling. Mercer is a guy who had every opportunity to achieve a lot, but didn't. He had talent but was so inconsistent and mostly relied on his toughness to seize victory more often than not. So it's a mystery how this fight would turn out, but it would probably be exciting. Neither guys likes to back up and both love letting their hands go. Power-Even Chin-Mercer Hand speed-Joyce Foot speed-Joyce Stamina-Joyce Technique-Even Experience-Mercer Defense-Irrelevant lol Gun to my head, Joyce takes a close decision in an exciting slug fest. Joyce's edge in reach, height, and speed make a big difference as he can get to Mercer first. Joyce could occasionally show intelligent lateral movement and picks his shots very well compared to the often very straightforward and unimaginative Mercer.