Realistically, what can Hopkins against Pavlik?

Only for the first 6 rounds. Hopkins was able to do that against Calzaghe for the first half of the fight but he could not keep up with Calzaghes pace. Pavlik is just as active and hits much harder. Hopkins might take the early rounds but he is going to gas out and I see Pavlik sweeping the second half of the fight and landing the much harder shots. Hokpins cant keep up like he used to, and Pavlik would have been difficult to fight even if Hopkins was Prime. Which he obviously isnt

 

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It's interesting because there are so many competing variables... including age and experience, styles, etc...

I think that it will be far different than Calzaghe-Hopkins. Calzaghe is difficult to control and is a swarmer. Pavlik reminds me of Arguello. He's got a good foundation but is basic and deliberate in his approach. The way to beat a guy like that is to set traps. And Hopkins does that very well.

Hopkins had a two tough fights with Taylor, who Kelly beat twice... I think Hopkins lost because Jermain was physically strong and aggressive. So isn't Kelly you say. Yes, but Jermain was also harder to read. Had he been more of a technician than the athlete he is, he would not have beaten Hopkins. Because Hopkins is the better technian. As it was, Jermain's shots were thrown on instinct, without real thought, and thus were more difficult to read than the "A + B = C" expectations of a technician. Kelly, will be predictable by contrast. Hopkins will see what he is doing.

Can Hopkins hurt Kelly? Well, if there were after Miranda, I'd say no, but Taylor hurt him badly and that changes things a bit. Kelly isn't iron-jawed. Good chin, good recuperative powers, but not as impenetrable he seemed to be against Miranda.

Hopkins' dropping Calzaghe should have been the beginning of the end for Joe, but Hopkins got conservative and like the elderly, got unduly concerned about tomorrow and refused to take a risk. I think that was costly tactical error. He should have went right after Calzaghe once he put him down instead of holding the door open for him to "come on back" in the fight.

I'm going to make a prediction. Bernard will set traps for Pavlik over the first 5 rounds, he will hurt him with a counter, and then toss his cane aside and go right after him.

 

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Under normal conditions, you would be correct. However, Joe wasn't Joe for the first few rounds. Bernard had him a little awed, a little stunned, and very unsure. Bernard didn't take over and he should have. Instead he allowed Joe to gain confidence by not pressuring him. Swarmers can't swarm when they're off balance, moving back, and preoccupied with what they are usually giving. Bernard was too conservative and that is precisely how not to fight Calzaghe.

 

i wonder how many punches bernard will throw in the fight, maybe 8?

 

Not a damn thing. Hopkins will again use his John Ruiz tactics like he did against Calzaghe and bore the fans. If he tries that garbage I hope Pavlik knocks him out cold.

 

Why do people keep bringing up Slappy Joe? That fight tells us absolutely nothing about Pavlik/Hopkins.

Hopkins is in for a big surprise when he tries to clinch and play rough on the inside. Pavlik swings a hundred pounds around with 1 hand; he's strong as a freaking ox. To strong for BHop.

It sounds counter-intuitive, but Bernards best chance would be to go for broke from the opening bell. Take advantage of the fact that KP has a track record of being vulnerable in the early rounds.

If this thing goes past 6 rounds, it's gonna be all Pavlik. Bernard will get the beating of a lifetime, and stopped inside 10.