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Pavlik is like a bigger sized Margarito. Margarito was catching up to PW in the later rounds of their fight. This fight is a toss up.

 

But pavlik punches way harder

 

that strength **** wont have anything to do with anything.... if pavlik gets hurt it will becasue of the way paul throws his punch... first of all he has extremely underrated speed if you watch any pw fight in the original broadcast you will see this.. it just gets underrated because he isnt a traditional fighter & he looks so awkard

in a 5 punch combo... paul will throw 3 soft punches to set up 2 banging quick punches from wierd ass angles... if paul staggers pavlik it wont be due to brute strenght but it will be do to pavlik having no clue what the **** hit him...just like cotto not being able to stop margarito but mosley being able to... mosley kept hitting margarito with shots that surprised him and thats what hurt him... when your surprised by a punch your muscles arent in position to keep your neck & jaw solid and you get shaken because of that..

so the strength **** wont matter... do i expect paul to knock pavlik out.. **** no... would i be surpirsed if it happened? **** no


paul has enough of a combination of speed & strength to have the power to stagger you... not knock you out with 1 solid punch but stagger you and just get you in a position to finish you....


this fight wont be about strenght & power

keys to this fight will be

- who will be the first to get off
- who will get into rhtyhm
- will paul stay away from the big right
- will paul be able to stay away from kp's sweet spots
- will pavlik ever counter punch?
- how will pavlik react to body punching


strength & power will be a moot point in this fight... as far as making comparinsons to miranda-taylor-bhop-zertuche or any of those other guys

margarito is 10000x's more dynamic than pavlik... better punching variety, faster pace, better inside fighting... the inside fighting is what helped margarito close the gap.... pavlik has 0 inside fighting ability... when fighters get close he just clinches and re-estabilshes the distance

 

Kelly Pavlik is NOT Carlos Quintana in any way, shape or form.

I don't see how pavlik wins, personally.

 

we all know that on That night PW was suffering from the infamous odlh flu! It is usually contracted when trying to lose to much weight!

 

paul really isnt technically good

he is just really natural (feels extremely comfortable in a ring, loves fighting and loves the challenge, throws great variety, great head movement and has a pretty good fundamental base) & is a very unique specimen ( 6-2/6-3, good chin, insane stamina, insane output and a bunch of other ****) so more than anything he makes it extremely difficult to beat him & develop a solid game plan

technical fighters mentally break you down (your errors, your mistakes, your tenancies, your favorite things to do, and the things that drive you crazy) to win this fight ease paul will have to prove that he is a technical thinker which I have never seen him really do... but at the same time he never really has had to ... until the margarito fight he was able to just outwill his opponents and not have to make adjustments... the margarito fight they had a perfect game plan and they road out the game plan until the end (showed tremendous will in the final rounds to pull it out) the winky, verno, kolle fight really didnt offer enough of a challenge for paul to need to make adjustsments... he was fine coming into the fight sticking to the game plan and riding it out...


the quintana fight paul just had an offnight.... he fought hard to get back into the fight but it was too much to late....

paul ( and george peterson .. pauls trainer) are going to have to show that they can formulate a game winning strategy and paul is going to have to follow that game plan to a T... and not revert back into his love of fighting which he sometimes does because he is so natural...

i think pavlik's best chance is if paul some how reverts into just fighting which he loves to do... i think this fight is so dangerous that paul would have to be a dumb ass to revert... i personally dont think he is a dumb ass but time will tell

 

Pavlik's way too slow. I guess he has a puncher's chance, but that's about it.

 

If Williams manages this, I'll be saving this post

Also - Pavlik came DAMN close to getting ko'd in 2.

 

The Quintana loss was the best thing that could've happened to Paul. It was a wakeup call because not only did he have a bad night, he's put in the time in the gym to improve.

I favor Kelly, but both have flaws the other can exploit. Kelly's defense isnt anything to write home about and he doesnt really have great timing or speed at all. He plods.

 

i agree about the quintana thing....

pavliks defense is kind of under-rated actually he does a solid job of catching punches on his gloves but he doesnt really know how to or have the ability to counter.. so its kind of worth less almost... i mean its not but he donest use it to his advantage

paul's advantages pavlik cant take advantage of because he isnt a counter puncher.... pavliks best bet is to do what he always does which is just wear guys down... if paul comes in shape like he normally does or even better it will be bad for kp

 

Paul has seemed to improve his head movement and to go along with his speed and ability to box/fight inside, Kelly's going to have a lot of trouble. Paul also has better stamina...Kelly has faded a little against JT in the second fight and against Hopkins he looked winded later on.

My only concern in Paul's ability to take the shots from a BIG middleweight hitter. I'm not sure yet, which is why I've been picking Pavlik to simply wear him down with hard shots, but if Paul can take the incoming fire, he's too skilled and talented to lose IMO. I can't ****ing wait.

I'm going to have to watch some of there recent fights before i make a true, cemented pick.

 

yeah thats the only true question mark about paul at this point... his chin against pavlik... but im pretty sure he will react as anyone else would... like he will be able to take some shots but just like jermain or anyone else... the right punch will do it ... i dont think he will crumble one but... but that can pretty much be said about anyone... the right punch can do it..


so far i have already watched

paul vs mattyshee
paul vs sharmba
paul vs quintana 2 (for fun)
paul vs margarito
paul vs winky
paul vs verno
paul vs kolle (for fun also)

i have those fights memorized pretty much

watched
kelly vs miranda
kelly vs zertuche
kelly vs jt 1 & 2
kelly vs bhop
i cant find all of kelly vs rubio

i think ive got what i need to be comfortable wtih pauls victory... paul just cant fall inlove with himself... he will have to obey the game plan