I think Vargas is more interested in getting a huge money fight at LW than sticking around and fighting smaller guys tbh. Or maybe he's just sick of making weight.
Figueroa has power, size and youth on his side. Vargas is slick enough to avoid the knockout but he loses a decision to the very active Texan.
I think you might be right on that because after taking the title from Magsayo at 126, his next fight is scheduled at 130.