There are a lot of good ideas here, & I can see the argument is strong both ways. But the reason I see it as stronger for Wlad is that he did so much more. Everyone's competition is suspected at HW-but Wlad beat far more good guys, also more broadly like Bowe, than Bowe defeating massive punshers like Wlad. My main & related questions were & are: how is the bout officated, & IF Wlad is allowed to not be a Clinchaholic (sic), COULD Bowe get past that? If the fight was officiated pretty strictly-which I think it should be-then Bowe would likely be favored, 60%. But that seems fairly unlikely to happen. Oh I would like to see videos of Fury moving those numbers like "paperweights". Estimating his muscle when accounting for his height & body fat %, & looking at him, I do not see someone that strong. I mean at least compared to a modern HW, let alone SHW sized dude.
A lot of Bowe's fights were characterized by Bowe nut shotting his opponents and weakening them that way. I have little sympathy for him getting his balls smashed by Golota.