That's more or less what I see, and I definitely agree Matthysse commanding the range would be the key for him.
It's puncher versus swarmer. And the puncher just might be as good defensively, just as quick, durable, tough, and conditioned. Rios had a Gatti like moment in stopping Alvarado in a thrilling contest. Let's not forget he was done in the fight in reality, and was starting to push his shots a lot until he caught Alvarado.
Rios is one or two more tough bouts away from being knocked out IMO. He's shown a great chin so far, but there is only so much you can take before your resistance starts to wear. He gets hit unbelievably clean. And he is stepping up in weight against harder punchers. Matthysse beats him IMO.