Yes speed, southpaw, and Oscar are the reason. Speed is obviously there, no matter how shot or weight drained Oscar was, Pac's speed is undeniable. He may have lost a step or two by going up in weight, but anybody with half an eye can see that he still has speed and is still one of the fastest and is certainly faster than Ricky. Most of the people in this thread seem to agree to that. Southpaw is another one of those things which Hatton has difficulties with. If you watch his fights against Magee, Urango and Lazcano you'll see a noticeable difference in the way he fights compared to orthodox fighters. You'll also notice how he had difficulties dealing with these fighters which he didn't have when dealing with orthodox ones(I didn't add Collazo as I feel it was the weight that ****ed Hatton up more than the Southpaw style). Now of course Hatton still dealt with all three of them, because Ricky IS a great fighter and all great fighters overcome any(or most) hardships they encounter. But you can't deny the fact that Ricky is troubled by them. And now that he's fighting another southpaw who is faster, has better boxing skills and is simply a superior fighter than the 3 mentioned, you'll have trouble not recognizing that at the very least, Hatton would have real trouble with Pacquiao. Hatton may still win, but please don't tell me he won't be greatly troubled by the effective southpaw style that Manny employs as any arguments you have against this would only contradict your "fact-based" argument. I mean those fights we're well documented and all concerning Ricky's difficulties. Another thing that I feel Manny has that could really trouble Ricky is his boxing skills. He's a more skilled boxer than Ricky in my opinion. His movement in the ring plus the different angles with which he throws his punches would cause Ricky huge problems. Not to mention that, as some here has already said, Ricky can sometimes go into a mood where he just throws wide and looping punches. Pac can easily make him pay for that. The thing is he's not facing a guy who used to lay it all on the line and just bully and brawl his way to a victory. That version of Pac is already gone. Ricky is facing a guy who now thinks, who picks his shots, who's a little bit more tactical plus the noticeable improvements in timing and even counterpunching. Ricky's facing a different and much improved Pacquiao and still you sit there and say Ricky would just shrug them all off? The only thing that I feel is a question mark for Pacquiao is his power and his durability at 140. But regarding his power I don't think you can just TKO Oscar(weight drained or not) and not have some semblance of power in there. Its hard to say if Pac would have KO power at 140, but I think having a decent power in there that would make Ricky respect him at the very least wouldn't be so far out of all known logic IMO. His durability is really the question mark here all things considered. Its 50/50 if whether he's tough enough to really handle Ricky's power or not. Im inclined to say he is, but I don't really have any basis for it. So I'm leaving it there. Lets just wait come fight time. There those are my reasons why Pac has a 50% chance of winning this fight as much as Ricky. The only problem I have with you is you seem to operate under this illusion that picking Hatton is the only "fact-based" pick that anybody can have. Its completely and utterly unfounded and you certainly don't have factual proof to back it up. All were doing here is, in essence, just speculating/assuming. No matter how highly likely you think Hatton's gonna win, its just that. Highly Likely. Not a fact. You can't use facts on a fight that's hasn't happened yet. Until the fights happens where only operating on "probabilities". That's it. Frankly I think its disrespectful for someone to just outright disregard what other people think and dictate to them what is fact(which really can't be proven atm) and what is not.
Sting, thanks for a great post...much of which I actually agree with. It is a breath of fresh air to see a post about this fight that is fact based, well argued, non-abusive and consists of more than the usual "Pac ****s up Hatton" or "Hatton tears Pac a new arsehole", these type of comments get old, very very quickly indeed (mia culpa -i'm as guilty as anyone). I just can't wait for this fight to be over with so we can all get back to some level of normality without all the childish abuse and comments....I never wanted Hatton to fight Pac, I would much rather see the Mancunian take on JMM, but thats for another day. You are quite right, Hatton dislikes southpaws, but I don't think that he necessarily struggles against them as such, although like you say he does change his style, becoming much more watchful and dropping the out and out aggressive style that is Hattons hallmark. - Magee was dealt with with relative ease after the 1st round Hatton knockdown with Hatton taking a reasonably comfortable UD, Urango was completely taken to school in a near shut-out by Hatton, (Hatton would probably recognise that he should have dealt more severely with Urango and tried to stop him rather than going for the shut-out, maybe he held back because of the Columbians stance??, I don't know), Lazcano is orthodox not southpaw but Rick struggled nevertheless, more confidence than anything else and a dissatisfaction with, and a breakdown of Hatton and Grahams relationship, this was the point at which he realised that he had to trade in Billy Graham for the upgraded model in Mayweather Sr. (the "fight" between May and Roach outside of the ring is going to be just as interesting as what goes on inside it IMO). There is no doubt that Pacs southpaw stance, combined with his silky boxing skills could well cause Hatton problems, but I don't think that this will be the combination of factors that hands Pac the win. Speed kills....and Pac is quick, very quick, but please don't underestimate Hattons mobility and fantastic footwork that may enable him to cut the ring down and trap Pac on the ropes or in a corner, if this happens its goodnight Vienna for MP. As I said, speed kills and I am sure that in Hatton and Mayweathers mind this is the thing that worries them more than anything else about the fight, and the main thing that they will be working on in training, trying to negate Pacs speed. As any fight fan knows the best way to slow a fighter down is by going to the body, Hatton possesses one of the best body attacks in boxing and to me this is the key to the fight....If Hatton catches Pac with a trademark rib tickler, then he could well be dead in the water, a sitting duck. My call for the fight is that in an attempt to take away Pacs best weapon (speed and mobility) Hatton jumps on the Pinoy from the first bell, trying to work the body and catch his man on the ropes (I can't say that I have ever seen how Pac reacts when he is consistantly on the back foot). If Hatton is able to catch Pac then I am afraid it may be a short nights work for the Mancunian, Hatton taking a TKO early-mid rounds. If Pac is able to stay busy, and away from Hatton (not likely IMO as I think that Pacs machismo will kick in and at some point he is going to try to go toe to toe with the stronger Hatton) then maybe Pac wins a decision, it will be a herculean effort, and a fantastic win, but to me all the indicators show that this isn't likely as sooner or later Hatton will catch him.
Whats wrong with you, A.D.D.? "Hatton tears the little ****er to pieces"...is that better for you? :-(
Hatton is a crude fighter. I don't think he can catch speedy Pac and execute his clinch and box style.
I'm not underestimating Hatton at all, mate. I know what he can do. And that's why I won't give Pac a higher chance of winning this fight. Now much like you agree with most of my post, I also agree with most of your post. The main problems Pac's gonna have with Ricky is the Hitman's power(though I disagree that one punch is all that Ricky needs really), his constant pressure which Pac has NEVER faced before, and his clinching. I especially think that Pac has to concentrate alot on how to deal with Hatton's clincing as I have a feeling its the gonna be the key for Ricky winning this fight. My post was just to show you that Pac has his own advantages and qualities that can beat Ricky as much as Ricky has his own in beating Pac. I don't agree at all that either would have an easy time with the other nor the chances of either winning would be 70% and up. This fight for me is as even as it gets with the most anyone can give to either is a 60-40 probability of winning. Very tough fight for both IMO.
pacs defence has improve alot. in the last two fights he has shown this, because if the pac from 4 years back fought his last two fights, his lack of defence would have made it more competitive. pac is more superior in offence and defence. plus his level of competition for the last couple of years has been above the level of hattons. pac is the favourite to win.