I really can only guess .. maybe 220 or so and not sure if he ever has anything like that body type ..
My brain also said Wilder would stop Fury rounds 5-10, my heart said Fury decision (I was kinda right, fury was up on my card)
If we round his weight from the Joshua fight to 270, then assume 30% bodyfat (which seems plausible to me) this yields an absolutely lean weight of 189. Then, if we add back 10% to match my estimated bodyfat of Holyfield and Norton, this yields a weight of just under 208 (207.9). That's a little lower than the intuitive ballpark guess in my head (~215) but not a lot. Unless I'm considerably off in my estimate of his current bodyfat, I guess that's got to be fairly close...
Okay, accepting that in arguendo, that would put him right around the same weight as Fitz. Do you think Fitz hit hard enough to knock out Joshua? (Ignoring for the moment whether he has the ability to land.)
I'll say AJ by KO because simply I think he's the better fighter. But it's hard to predict how he mentally copes, since he haven't been in this situation before. He looked very nervous the last time out, when he was the big favourite so it could be even worse this time around. If so, it will be hard for him.
Ruiz stopped him in fight one and it’s usually easier in fight two. However I could see Joshua fighting a more disciplined fight by moving and boxing not giving Ruiz a target. Using a long jab, clinching in close and only opening up when a clear opening is available. In process he busts his opponent up setting up a late round stoppage. Either scenario is plausible but the red herring is Joshua’s lack of durability. Can’t fix that. I’d pick Ruiz by stoppage within ten rounds.
Ruiz did a little bit too well for me to not back him in a rematch. It was more than one big hook. There are some things that Ruiz has going for him: 1. Body punching. Joshua doesn't like it to the body. 2. Enough skill to split rounds even if Joshua is fighting 100% safety first. 3. Joshua has sounded like a headcase lately and may be significantly slimming his physique to his own detriment, given that he isn't used to it. 4. Did Ruiz have anything resembling a serious camp last time?
I'm really struggling to think of fight at heavyweight where one guy got totally broken down like that and came back to win the rematch. I guess Patterson-Johansson works.
Not sure Joshua losing weight is going to help him that much, he just ins't a loose up on his toes style of fighter and is not going to become one in 6 months. I honestly think Ruiz will tag him again at some point. Ruiz TKO11.
I see it as quite similar to Lewis vs McCall and Rahman also. Joshua was done after that first knock down, he was out on his feet and never recovered. It only took longer time to become "official" than Lewis against Rahman and McCall, but as in those fights the outcome was decided in one instant. Joshua could get tagged again, or Ruiz could just take over, having increased confidence while Joshua's diminished, but that was a possibility also before the Lewis's rematches. He would go on to show that he had the capacity to pull himself together and improve, but that wasn't a given before, just as it isn't now for Joshua.
