Yep! Feel free to do the switch if you want whenever you were going to. I may not be around much over the weekend.
Executive decision...I'm going to swap out the Stickies now. This one for the Rummy's Challenge thread, and cuchulain's "Official Prediction Thread: Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Manny Pacquiao" for my "All Things Mayweather/Pacquiao" Express, until Sunday when it will be replaced by my Chronological RBR Archive. My reasoning is that at this point, midweek, a couple of days from the fight, Rummy's excellent preview & breakdown videos are of more general interest than his erstwhile picking league (which is vegetative and on extended life support anyway with virtually nil membership) and cuchulain's poll is where most of the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao discussion ought to be focused now, since we have entered crunch time, where everybody should be getting off the fence and making a choice already.
So this is my little breakdown...I had promised to get it to Rummy but didn't realize what his deadline was. So, consider this an unofficial "spin-off" installment of This content is protected , which going forward is going to be a part of Rummy's Corner except trimmed & edited to his quality standards. I'm just putting it here because, I don't know, is this really worth its own thread? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW8-ibObWy8 Full transcript: What's going on? I am IntentionalButt. Apologies, getting over a cold. Lost my voice a couple of days ago. Was gonna wait until I convalesced to make this video, but seeing as we've arrived upon Friday, the eve of the big event, time has become a factor. Here's my breakdown of tomorrow night. You got Floyd "Money"/"Pretty Boy Floyd" Mayweather Jr. - here is what he's gonna be looking to do. His offense will be very heavy on the lead right hand, especially on the body, but he'll mix em up (low & high) all night. Occasionally, if he gets the opportunity, he's gonna try for that check hook. So that's a fade-away, lean back, moving diagonal - very slick move as far as the footwork is concerned, and the timing has to be precise as far as the punch itself. The oncoming opponent needs to be clueless about the incoming check hook. In order for that to be achieved, they need to be rushing in headlong. Fortunately for Mayweather, Pacquiao has very predictable straight lines of movement. That's Pacquiao's main thing, his bread and butter, it's 90% of what he does. It's effective, though, because he is ****ing fast. BUT - Mayweather is gonna have opportunities, to scout that. It's muscle memory, Pacquiao's not going to be able to help himself, he's going to do that (that is, come in straight with the 1-2, back out, and straight in again on the same groove) at least 100 times in the fight. (I'm Pacquiao) He's gonna come right at him. Bunny-hop in, bunny-hop out. Now I'll be Mayweather. What this does for Floyd is, he's gotta get his left foot around Pacquiao's lead right foot. He's gonna be stepping in aggressive, Pacquiao's fast, he's relentless, he's gonna come straight at him, giving him nowhere to go. Floyd has to create that angle. His footwork needs to be as precise as it has ever been, because he's never been in with anyone with the footwork of Manny Pacquiao, in terms of just speed. Here comes Pacquiao. Now Floyd has to establish himself, generalship. It's gonna require him shuffling a baby step back, maybe half a (baby) step or two, then pivot to his left, then execute the left hook. It's actually gonna be really risky for Floyd to try this. Pacquiao doesn't always end with the 1-1-2. He'll follow up on that. He'll throw uppercuts, right hook on the inside, dip low and another right hook. Floyd has to be very careful, if he's going to attempt the check hook. He's gotta watch out he doesn't hook WITH Pacquiao. If they both land hooks at the same time, and Floyd's in the middle of a pivot motion with all his balance on the ball of that left foot, it's gonna go badly for him. Whether or not he is hurt, he's gonna suffer a flash knockdown and be in a hole on points. Part 2 coming up, I need some water... Besides, late or not, I did say I'd do this. :yep
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz8yrxAUEy0 Alright, we established that Floyd needs to be very careful with the check hook, if he's gonna attempt the maneuver. I think he will, personally. I think he's going to attempt it, but he's gonna wait until he times Pacquiao's rhythm. It'll be at least the 5th or 6th round before he even tries it. Coz he's gonna want to have - even for all the footage that he's watched of Pacquiao (and trust me, he watches tape. F that "I don't watch tape" - he watches tape, or at least he's watching tape this time, trust me) - for all the footage he's watched of Pac, he's going to want to study him for a few rounds. That's just who Floyd is. He's going to want to get the exact rhythm of that 1-1-2 coming in. Basic & predictable as it is, it's more speed than Floyd's seen thrown at him in...forever. So he's going to want to be really careful before he attempts that pivot on that 1st step to get his left foot around Pacquiao's right & try and bop him with that left hook. Not coming anytime soon. First half of the fight, at least third of the fight, it's gonna be all lead right hands from Floyd. What he needs to do is mix in more of a jab than he's been used to for the last several years. He needs a jab. Needs the jab. Because he needs the jab to give Pacquiao something else to look at. That lead right hand by itself, on the body, sure Juan Manuel Marquez used that a little bit. It's effective to stem Pacquiao's assault for, I don't know, one rush, the next rush - but Pacquiao just slides, new angle, over to his side real quick, bunny hop in, his feet are too fast. You can't do anything with that with just lead rights on the body alone. You gotta show him a different look. You need a jab. I'm not saying Floyd's gotta hurt Pacquiao, absolutely not. Floyd's gotta land the stiffest jab he can, though. Floyd's got a good stiff jab when he actually puts his mind to it. When he's in this mode. Not just the shoulder-roll-&-lead-rights - when he goes to the high guard & throws a stiff jab, it's a good jab. He can knock guys down with that jab. Not Pacquiao, though. Cracked or not after Marquez IV, Pacquiao's got a hell of a chin. He's gonna walk right through Floyd's shots, trust me. But - something else for him to look at besides just the lead right hand on the belt line, something else - it's gonna slow Pacquiao down, gonna give him pause, give him something to think about instead of just rushing in all night. The way Maidana rushed in all night, with no respect for anything Floyd threw at him. Floyd didn't throw a lot of jabs. If he had, maybe he would have gotten Maidana's respect. Maybe he doesn't come at him so relentlessly, at least in the first fight. It was an all night long assault. Took a while, took a while for Floyd to make that adjustment, eventually he did, eventually he did start incorporating more jabs. Had he done that from the get-go, maybe it isn't as close as people thought it was. Regardless, he's gonna need the jab. He's not gonna win the first half of the fight just throwing lead right hands on the body with the occasional lead right hand up top. We've already established he's not gonna try the hook until later in the fight. He's gotta drop in some jabs. And he will - Floyd always jabs a little bit. But, it can't just be that like, going through the motions perfunctory jab, he's gotta throw a stiff jab. Not even with the intention of doing anything - not with the intention of setting up a big punch, not with the intention of stunning Pacquiao, just with the intention of giving him something else to look at to slow the oncoming tide. He's gotta work that in, otherwise he doesn't have a prayer of taking a lion's share of points in the 1st half of the fight. Depending on what the judges are looking for, if they're very Floyd friendly judges, if they like his style, that efficiency, right hand leads scoring on the belt line, and they see Pacquiao's throwing a lot more but (oops, forgot how to southpaw) primarily missing, maybe grazing Floyd's head a bit with the 1-1-2, with the occasional cuffing right hook, and if they see Floyd's landing cleaner with the higher connect percentage, yeah, maybe they'll give him rounds. But for him to have a clear, breakaway dominant edge in that 1st half of the fight before he gets going mixing in the left hook - he's going to have to use the jab. He's going to have to jab a lot more than he's been used to the last SEVERAL fights. If Floyd's smart he's been working on that in training camp and that's gonna be part of his weapons coming in on fight night, showing Pacquiao a lot more jabs than he's expecting. That's Floyd. Pacquiao - what's he gotta do to beat Floyd? We talked about that right hook. Coming in off his bread n butter 1-1-2. It's all about HOW he throws that right hook, and when he throws it. I say no fewer than every 4 combinations he needs to punctuate 'em with that right hook. When Pacquiao puts his mind to it - he works on this in the gym with Freddie Roach all the time, you see it in all the highlights of his training sessions, going back years, when he puts his mind in that right hook - he can turn it over flawlessly. His right hook, in terms of textbook form, I'm gonna be honest, when he does it right, it's up there with Floyd's left hook. Right up there. Difference being - Pacquiao's more explosive. He throws it with bad intentions. What he's gotta do is make sure the right jab, that 1st one, is not just a pawing range-finder. A good solid jab. NOT the hardest jab he can possibly throw - because you want to save the bulk end of your power for the left cross and the right hook, 3rd & 4th punch in the combo respectively. You wanna backload something like 60-70% of the energy you're expending on the combination on those last two punches - at minimum. 70% or more. BUT those first couple of jabs, can't just be cupcake jabs, they can't just be like, you know little limp-wristed tomfoolery. No. Pacquiao gets into that lazy habit sometimes, you can't do that with Floyd. Because in between lazy jab #1 and lazy jab #2, counter right hand on the nose, dude is down and out. I'm serious. So what he's gotta do, semi-stiff jab, semi-stiff jab, both of them retracting straight back to his jaw, leaving no lane open, 1, 2, HARD left cross - not a problem. Pacquiao can throw that combination (in his sleep) moving forward or backward, although as we know he's usually coming forward. But moving in straight lines, Pacquiao can actually do that all day long, bunny-hop in, bunny-hop out, 1-1-2, 1-1-2. Doesn't matter, you can push him back, he'll still knock you on your ass with a 1-1-2. What he's gotta do is make sure that he's planting that lead right toe, popping that decently stiff double jab, bringing that cross through with the left heel dropping, and then turning over that right hook, perfectly. He can't get lazy with the right hook. This is crucial. This part is integral to Pacquiao not getting countered with something that's gonna put him on his ass. He needs to throw that right hook like he is capable of throwing that right hook, and like he sometimes does when he puts his mind to it. He's gotta have his elbow up, left glove needs to be protecting his chin, immediately upon retraction from that left cross, straight out, straight in. Right glove meanwhile has been waiting here since that 2nd stiff right jab. Until the left glove arrives, retracted from the cross. Left heel is down on the canvas. Pacquiao starts twisting on the ball of that right foot, throwing his right hip into that punch, right elbow kept up as though he is carrying an egg in his elbow. He needs to keep that egg unbroken and level, flush with floor and ceiling. Top of the egg to the ceiling. Bottom of the egg to the floor. He needs to NOT break that egg, while he is breaking Floyd's jaw. (IB, to inanimate object: "Do you mind??") ("gonna do it from this angle :conf") Apologies; I'm not a southpaw. That's what Pac's gotta do. Just like Floyd's gotta deviate from his usual lead right hand centric game plan, Pacquiao can't just beat him with the 1-1-2. He's gotta throw that right hook; he's gotta land it flush - and that requires throwing it a lot, probably with more frequency than Floyd is expecting, and it has to be perfect every time. No brain farts. There is no room for mental lapses. Pacquiao's form needs to be perfect on every right hook that he throws - which is why, he needs to not be throwing it on every combination. Let's face it, a couple of times at least, he's gonna paw the lazy right jab - maybe he gets lucky and Floyd doesn't counter him right at that exact moment with a straight right hand, but it's gonna happen, it's inevitable. These guys are supremely conditioned athletes, but even guys like a Floyd Mayweather Jr. or Manny Pacquiao, they get lazy in the ring during the course of a 12-round championship fight, especially against a fellow pound for pound elite. Both guys will have lazy moments, believe that. Not every 1-1-2 he throws is gonna be solid and perfect. BUT THE ONES THAT ARE - the ones that could provide a set up for that perfect right hook - he's gotta be mindful of when he's got it. He needs to know his own rhythm. He needs to know "I've got Floyd lined up dead to rights. I can land at least one of the first two jabs, I can at least graze him with the hard left cross, and I'm in position to pivot forward on the ball of the right foot and plant that right hook. He's GOTTA EXECUTE. Everything he's learned over the years with Freddie Roach in the gym, everything going back to when he was a teenager, he's gotta just let it all settle in. Let instinct take over. Do what he knows how to do - but do it flawlessly. Do it carefully.
I did a run through the other day with a friend that lasted over an hour where I broke down every possible scenario of how both of them can beat the other, did all the posing and fighting out of the Southpaw position imitating Manny's movements Floyd's movements what punches they have to throw and at what angle. I felt like a douchebag after it went on for over an hour. But that was a good breakdown IB although the music in the background was too loud but you couldn't control that, nice gritty Abel Ferrera vibe to it, I tend to get way too intricate and obsessed on one little thing and hyper fixate one little detail that I think could happen, and that's usually why I'm so OCD banging the drum on here of whatever pick I've settled on because I run the scenario over and over and it always seems right and I usually am, but of course all anyone wants to fixate on is the losses I rack up in my picks, never on the wins which out number them. But I stand by most of my assessments its just that the fighters don't implement what I think they should do.:conf Sometimes I **** up like with Mitchell-Estrada or Chavez-Fonfara oh well. I'd like to do a lot of write ups like that, but I think its ultimately pointless and most of the readers on here don't care and get bored reading stuff like that so I don't even try. And I can explain a hell of a lot better just walking around and talking because I talk with hands like Quentin Tarantino, and I talk a lot. Typing that **** out long form bores me. Too much work.
