**Saturday Taylor vs. Pavlik: Questions and answers...**

:good

 

I'm just thankful we don't have to see Trinidad labor through another drubbing. :happy

Here's some random thoughts:


As usual, HBO did an excellent job with their pre-fight countdown. They specifically concentrated on the fighters and their trainers, and illustrated the contrasts between both very well.

I don't know who is going to win this fight. A host of scenarios can play out. In my opinion, it's an excellent styles match-up. Taylor's superior speed and experience against elite opposition pitted against Pavlik's balls and power. If they're both on point and not too drained from making the weight, it's a great fight. Unlike his last two opponents, Taylor will be facing a straight-up orthodox fighter who has a fairly porous defense, but he's also facing the first real puncher in his career as well.

I think the best thing for Taylor to do in this fight is to establish respect early. Come out and use his speed advantage to nail Pavlik with big shots in the very first round. If not, Pavlik is in a position where he can get into a rhythm and bulldoze Taylor. Pavlik is known for early knockouts, but it's important to note that those knockouts were usually scored against vastly inferior opponents. If you look at Pavlik's past fights with his better and more recent opponents (Miranda, Zertuche, McKart, and Zuniga), he gets stronger as the rounds go by.

On the other side of the coin, Taylor presents some interesting problems for Pavlik. First, Taylor is actually more likely to hurt Pavlik than a puncher like Edison Miranda. Miranda was throwing a lot of big shots, but most of those shots were looping shots Pavlik could see. Taylor, because of his speed advantage (and if he's on point), has the ability to land crisp, hard, straight shots on Pavlik from angles Pavlik might not be able to see. That's the key. If Taylor can hurt Pavlik and surprise him with fast, blind shots with plenty of leverage and power, he can establish respect and use his superior speed to keep Pavlik at bay.

I'm not convinced, however, that it's going to happen. First, Pavlik's punching power is a major factor. Taylor has faced crafty, Hall of Fame opposition, but he's never faced a ranked knockout artist in his career. To add to the fray, even though I'm pretty sure Pavlik is a converted southpaw, he can end a fight with either hand at any time. He is the type of fighter who appears capable of catching a faster opponent in the middle of a flurry like Mike Weaver did against Carl Williams in the 1980s, and as Jorge Castro did against John David Jackson in the 1990s. When a speed-oriented fighter gets in a groove against a fighter they view as one dimensional, sometimes they become overconfident and neglect substantive defense, and end up as a knockout victim. That's a huge X factor in this fight.

Moreover, for a freakishly tall middleweight, Pavlik is a well-schooled infighter. As a corollary to what I mentioned above about Pavlik getting stronger as the rounds go by, Pavlik is a fighter who concentrates on the body with short, precise shots, and has shown a propensity to grind an opponent's body and intestinal fortitude up with accumulation, Once again, this is counter to the notion that he's an impatient puncher looking for the big shot. If Pavlik goes to the body as I expect him to, Taylor should counter to Pavlik's body in kind. At one time in his career, Taylor appeared to be developing into one of the most vicious body puncher's in the sport, but intriguingly, he's abandoned this tactic as his level of opposition has improved. It will be interesting to see how Taylor responds when Pavlik goes downstairs. Will he get on his bike as Pavlik has predicted, or surprise the lanky Pavlik with power shots to the body of his own?

Another interesting issue in this fight is the possible misnomer of Taylor's superior ring experience. At face value, Pavlik hasn't faced Taylor's level of opposition, but he can adapt in the ring better than most think. He follows instructions well. In watching Pavlik against Bronco McKart, I was impressed with his extraordinary patience against a cagey foe with a wealth of elite level experience. Pavlik was smart enough to know that McKart was a ringwise veteran who had never been knocked out. He knew it would take time to break him down. McKart eventually collapsed under the accumulation of well placed power shots, to both the body and the head.

Against power puncher Edison Miranda, Pavlik knew that Miranda possessed both heavy hands and heavy feet, and didn't have a reverse gear. When Pavlik forced Miranda to back up, it not only diminished a lot of Miranda's leverage, but the strategy also put Miranda under tremendous physical and psychological pressure, which caused Miranda to tire quickly. All told, Taylor has faced much better opposition than Pavlik, but Pavlik might actually be the less reactive fighter who thinks his way through a fight instead of defaulting to his physical attributes under stress. The way for a fighter of Taylor's style to offset Pavlik is to put more weight on his back foot, draw Pavlik in, use a powerful, but judicious, disciplined, and educated jab while being cognizant of counters, and put his punches together in smooth, cerebral combinations. Pavlik is dangerous, and should be treated accordingly.

One of the other key issues in this fight is intangibles. This is a fairly complex issue. Pavlik is obviously hungry, but the media is more pro-Pavlik, so it puts Taylor into a position where goes into the fight with something to prove, almost as if he's an underdog. In that same vein, if Taylor loses, the fallout is extreme. It's as if he's been exposed, even though he fought well against Hopkins & Wright, two of the truly elite, top PFP fighters in the sport.

On the other side of the coin, despite a lot of support being thrown his way, Pavlik goes into the fight with myriad pressures. Pavlik, born and raised in tough, gritty, and eviscerated post-industrial Youngstown, often appears mature beyond his years. Nonetheless, to be sure, how will he respond to all of the big lights, big city pressure surrounding the "event" of a high profile world title fight? A recent article left me with some concerns. Here is the link:

http://www.vindy.com/content/sports/local_regional/319525208439085.php

A few months ago, Ray Mancini stated that Pavlik should go away to camp for this fight, and for other big fights in the future. In my opinion, he's right.

Right now, I'd say intangibles slightly favor Taylor at this juncture. In reading and seeing interviews with Taylor, he looks and sounds extremely focused.

All in all, this is a great match-up. Here is a quick breakdown:

Hand and Foot Speed - Taylor
Power - Pavlik
Experience - Taylor
Stamina - Pavlik
Defense - Taylor
Heart - Even
Chin - Pavlik
Ring Generalship - Pavlik*
Intangibles - Taylor

Enjoy the fight.


*Regarding ring generalship, Pavlik has shown an ability to do a lot of subtle things to control the pace and tempo of both the ring and the fight. As noted, he might very well be a less reactive fighter than Taylor. He follows instructions and applies tactics and strategy well for a 25-year-old fighter who is mostly known as a puncher.

 

I'm starting to get that feeling..the tenseness and anticipation of something special going to happen.The sensation is magnified by the astute observations of some of the more learned posters...thank you....this could be a great one, another Ali-Frazier I, another Duran Leonard I, or Hagler -Hearns.We'll see.

 

Good post!!!

 

We have the makings of a great fight. It reminds me a bit of the Holmes-Cooney match, although I think Pavlik is better than Cooney was and Holmes was better than Taylor is. It was an interesting fight because Cooney changed his style. Cooney had destroyed in short order, pretty much everyone before Holmes. (I was very bummed when my favorite Ken Norton got hammered in the 1st by Cooney). Once Cooney got knocked down in the 2nd round by Holmes (was it round 2?), Cooney became a boxer and Holmes became the stalker. Cooney actually did surprisingly well in this reversal of roles for a while. Around the tenth I vaguely remember Howard Cosell talking about Holmes as having been a great champion, as though he thought Holmes was losing and would lose this fight. Holmes probably heard that, and finally put Cooney away.

So here with Taylor-Pavlik, I sense a similar scenario, but even more competitive. I think it really hinges on Pavliks boxing ability which I think is somewhat underatted. As a previous poster mentioned, his ability to make adjustments to the oppositions style has been shown more times than once. I do not believe Pavlik is just going to come out and go for broke. I think he will be patient, use his jab a lot and pick his spots. As the fight goes on he will then get more and more aggressive, and unload.

I've been impressed with Taylor taking this fight very serioulsy other than some moments of Bravado talk. Isolating himself in camp, and hopefully listening to his trainer should have him well prepared to defend. His success will depend on the effectiveness of his jab and movement. If the jab aint working, he's in for a long brutal night. If it is noticibly superior to Pavlik's then he can really go to work, jabbing moving, and countering. However, Pavlik will still be dangerous.

My pick??????? After being on the fence a while I'm leaning slightly toward Pavlik now as he will be dangerous regardless of the situation.

Should be a great fight!

 

Why don't you want to see a "white boy" as MW champ ??? Are you a racist ???

 

Excellent breakdown of fighters qualities. I agree with you on each point. However, I see Pavlik winning this one late by ko. I think hes hungrier and the bombs will eventually take a toll on Taylor and set him up for a crushing knockout loss in the late rounds. pavlik seems to be well conditioned and he carries his power late.

 

I feel Pavlik is a little overrated, but I still think he will give Taylor a good fight. I see Pavlik trying to rough Taylor up early, I see Taylor sticking to the plan Manny set for him and winning by UD.

 

Zivic, great post! I too have wondered whether Pavlik can catch Taylor in the middle of his flurries.

 

It's certainly possible. At this point, with reference to fighters with big jabs, Taylor reminds me more of Carl "The Truth" Williams than Larry Holmes. Williams had a lot of talent, but tended to rely a lot on his physical gifts instead of thinking his way through things. In contrast, Holmes was a tough, educated, cerebral fighter.

 

This is the first time Taylor has fought a puncher. Bernard is a solid puncher, but not a big puncher. Moreover, Bernard's peak was between 1997-2001. The question regarding Pavlik is if he can get Taylor in position to land power shots.