**Saturday Taylor vs. Pavlik: Questions and answers...**

Keep dreamin' kid. When Taylor gets laid out cold Saturday, we'll have a whole casserole dish of crow in the oven just for you!!!:yep

 

He just likes to hype up Calzaghe.

 

Does anyone know who the ref is going to be?

 

I believe Pavlik will win inside the distance tonight, and most likely before the 10th round. Pavlik has been in with bigger punchers and fighters than Taylor has, and he took the best they had to offer and knocked them out. I am aware however that bigger puncher does not necessarily mean better fighter, but then again who did Taylor fight before he got his title shot?

I have read many comments from posters claiming that Pavliks lack of quality opposition coming into this bout will be a big factor in this fight, but I disagree. Taylor faced an old and over the hill Joppy and Marquez, and a C-level fighter at best in Edouard before getting his shot at Hopkins.... not exactly a who`s who of the middleweight divsion now is it.

So in that vein I do not think that Pavlik`s lack of top flight opposition will be a major factor. Taylor doesn`t hit harder than some of Pavlik`s previous opponents such as Fulgencio Zuniga, Jose Luis Zertuche and Miranda all three of whom are harder punches than anyone Taylor has faced in his entire career. Kelly ground them down and stopped them all and took the best they had to offer, and I don`t believe Taylor hits harder than either of those fighters and he will not be able to discourage Kelly from coming to him to get his own pound of flesh in.

Also, Taylor`s habit of backing himself into the ropes by anyone who consistantly applys pressure and cuts the ring off effectively on him will be his downfall in this fight. If smaller fighters such as Wright and Ouma could back Taylor into the ropes and corners on a fairly regular basis, I don`t see why a stronger and bigger fighter in Pavlik wouldn`t be able to do it and keep it up for longer. I am convinced Pavlik woud have stopped Ouma and Spinks had they fought, and might have well beaten Wright if given the chance.

Pavlik is the hungrier and tougher fighter of the two, as well as the harder puncher, and as Zivic said in his detailed breakdown of the fight (excellent read BTW) Kelly is an adaptable fighter who can change his strategy accordingly depending on what his opponent presents in the ring. Those attributes will in my opinion be the deciding factor in this bout, as I think Taylor will fold under the pressure and he does not have the power to keep Pavlik off him.

Taylor is no slouch by any means however and is coming into the fight with something to prove as the criticism of his last few fights has clearly affected him. But I fail to see how he is going to to be able to keep Pavlik off of him or down & I can see Kelly catching Taylor and hurting him badly. Pavlik is the greener fighter of the two but this is not a fight in which Taylor`s natural athleticism will bail him out as it did against smaller fighters in the past.

Pavlik will not allow this to be a posing match and he WILL force Taylor to stand and fight, and that is when Taylor will get hurt. Jermaine has never been the most fleetfooted of fighters and he isn`t suddenly going to turn into SRR and bounce around on his toes and dance out of harm`s way... he will be there for Pavlik to hit. Other than being reasonably quick and possessing a nice jab, Taylor is not all that above average and his habit of keeping his left hand at waist level might very well see him getting nailed by Kelly`s right repeatedly.

He has made his paydays from fighting champs that are over the hill and smaller fighters moving up in weight who were never known as punchers, not by fighting young lions like himself.I also believe HBO is hoping for a Pavlik win, as he is far more marketable than Taylor who I believe has fallen out of favour with the network due to his recent performances. Pavlik is a pressure fighter who can punch like nobody`s business, makes for good fights and is white which is marketing gold for HBO. Should this fight go to the cards, I would expect Pavlik to get the decision.

Just my 0.02$

 

And, my 0.02$ in response...

What makes me pick Taylor in the fight is the fact that, despite a couple of less than stellar performances against Ouma and Spinks, he still showed certain aspects of his game that make me think that he'll have success against Pavlik. Against Ouma, he was able to string together multi-punch combinations at various points in the fight, while against Spinks, he showed an improved defense, and did make pretty good use of the jab.

The problem in those fights was the fact that Taylor elected to box the boxer, and slug with the aggressive pressure fighter. However, unless Pavlik shocks the world, and shows me a skill-set that I haven't seen, I think he'll be relying upon a pressure-based, balls-to-the-wall attack in the hopes of getting JT out of there. Given his defensive liabilities, that's going to leave him open to the punches of Taylor, who possesses quicker fists, and an arsenal of punches that's as good (if not nearly as powerful) as his opponent's.

This is a fight where Taylor will be forced to box, rather than slug, and I think this will work to his advantage. I think he keeps his jab in Pavlik's face, opens up a couple of cuts, and, once he establishes that rythm, begins to find the range with his powerpunches, and scores a late stoppage.

Taylor may not look great against the absolute elite, or against guys who possess superior boxing skill. But, I just don't see Pavlik as elite, nor does his skill-set strike me as being top-tier.

When Taylor is in against the second tier, he usually dominates. I think he'll do so this time, as well.

 

Taylor will win an eay fight.

 

You have got to be kidding me.

Taylor has the worst footwork of any middleweight champion in recent history.

Pavlik throws more punches in better combinations so hand and foot speed - Pavlik

 

And about eight years removed from his prime by the time Lacy got to him

 

Hello Drew, how you been?

You make some salient points, but I disagree with a few of your assertions. First off I seriously doubt that Taylor has the power to really hurt Pavlik, let alone stop him. He landed everything but the kitchen sink on a natural jr. middleweight in Ouma, and could not even succeed in putting him down once or to seriously hurt him. Now if Taylor couldn`t hurt Ouma, how is he going to hurt and stop the bigger and stronger Pavlik?

I agree Pavlik will get hit, but he will be throwing all night as well and something big is bound to land on Taylor. Unfortunately for JT, for reasons we know all too well, he has absolutely no idea what getting hit flush by a genuine puncher feels like. Another thing to keep in mind is that I genuinely believe Taylor is cracking under the criticism. Remember the scene in Rocky II were Apollo is reading the hate mail from fans to his wife?

I think that is exactly the frame of mind Taylor is in. He`s the champ but everybody is questioning all of those close decisions he has had of late and the fact that he has been consistantly fighting naturally smaller fighters who couldn`t break an egg with their Sunday punch. He knows that if he runs from Pavlik, any respect he might have left goes straight out the window. He knows he needs to step up to the plate and make a statement, which is why I believe he will want to assert himself early on.

And that is exactly what will get him into trouble, as this is one fight were he would be best served to avoid any unnecessary exchanges and stay clear of Pavlik and box to decision behind his jab. He CAN do it, but I doubt he will be able to pull it off for a full 12 rounds, not against someone who will be forcing him to fight harder than he ever has before. And do not underestimate Pavlik`s own boxing ability, as he has a pretty decent jab and could also put together combinations very well when he takes his time.

I have seen almost a dozen Pavlik fights, and he is far from being a one-dimentional, plodding forward puncher looking for the big punch to end matters. He can box some and has the patience to set up his punches behind a jab, and he doesn`t always go for broke from the opening bell. He will fight that way and take some punches to get his own in if he feels his opponent doesn`t have the power to hurt him or durability to last long, but he can take his time as well which I believe he will do tonight.

He will stalk Taylor and look to corner him, and will go to the body early and often to set up a late rounds stoppage. He will be throwing plenty of leather and like I said in my previous post he won`t allow this to be a posing match as he will keep throwing with little concern of the incoming unlike most of Taylor`s previous opponents. Taylor is NOT a puncher, never was whereas Pavlik IS a genuine puncher who can take his man out with either hand, and land on and hurt Taylor he will.

If old man Hopkins could have Taylor do a little hula dance from one right hand, I am confident Pavlik will have him doing the horizontal shuffle eventually. And lastly, the one thing that really has me confidently picking Pavlik is Emmanuel Steward`s laughable comments of late. Steward is usually a man of few words before a fight, but this time he actually went on to say that even ATGs like both Sugar Ray`s and Marvin Hagler would have wanted no part of Taylor, and that he will flatten Pavlik.

Now, we are talking about the same Jermaine Taylor that drew and arguably lost to junior middleweight Winky Wright, had a much tougher time than anticipated with another smallish junior middle in Ouma who 5 months earlier was hammered all over the ring by limited Roman Karmazin, and sqeaked by welterweight Cory Spinks. Those comments are so out of character for someone like Steward to make that it just doesn`t ring true to me.

The only conclusion I can come to is that Steward is talking up Taylor so that he will actually believe he is not going to get a whipping tonight. It has never been Steward`s style to talk this kind of talk before a fight, which makes me believe that something about Taylor has caught his eye and he is trying his best to motivate Taylor anyway he can because he senses some self doubt within his charge. If Taylor has confidence issues going into tonights fight, its gonna be short night for Taylor.

He might come out guns blazing as he feels his back is against the wall, but it will be short lived once he feels what it is like to get hit by someone his own size who can punch like a mule`s kick and who will be looking to knock his head off from the opening bell to the last. And this might be an unpopular position but I will say it... I always believed that Taylor has a bit of a yellow streak in him, and if the going gets tough and he starts getting discouraged and hurt often he may well quit on his stool. I would not be shocked in the least if that happened, and if it does you heard it here first.

 

It's not good to be so brazen in a difficult styles match-up like this.

Pavlik TKO7

 

HBO put on two terrific fights last night. Kudos to Kelly Pavlik, Jermaine Taylor, Andre Berto and David Estrada for making last night a memorable one.

Now to the fight itself, I was shocked to see how careless Pavlik got in the second round by dropping his hands and getting hit with shots he never should have taken. The punch that really did the damage before he got knocked down was a right hand behind Pavlik`s ear which affected his equilibrium, and then dropping his hands allowed Taylor to get in enough punches to put him down.

But the fact he got through that was amazing and showed tremendous determination, heart and conditioning. Taylor seemed to be doing better than he was given credit for on the air, although I had the fight 4-2 in favour of Pavlik going into the 7th. Pavlik used his jab and straight right effectively while going to the body well too. Kelly`s punches don`t look that great but they have a cumulative effect on his foes, he has that long skinny deceptive kind of strenght, much like Monzon did.

But Pavlik reminds me a lot more of Danny "Little Red" Lopez in that he is vulnerable to knockdowns early and takes a few rounds to get into his groove, but once he does it is only a matter of time until his opponents fold under his constant pressure and power. Like Danny he uses that jab-right cross combination very effectively and consistantly, and goes to the body with regularity to slow his man down. He really did a good job of keeping that jab in Taylor`s face by landing it solidly and regularly throughout the fight and backing him up with it.

Kelly does have some glaring flaws like Lopez did, but they will only be exploited by a fighter with a lot of lateral movement and speed and who has an excellent chin, like Sanchez did when he took the title from Danny. Pavlik, like Danny before him has the utmost confidence in himself and his ability to eventually track his man down and stop him, and he has the great conditioning to match. There is something to be said about a guy who can get up off the canvas to KO the other guy again & again... you can`t put a value on that kind of trust and confidence in yourself.

As for the stoppage, I do not understand how anyone in their right mind could say it wasn`t appropriate. At the very moment Smoger stepped in between the two fighters Jermaine appeared almost lifeless along the ropes. After Smoger finally got between them Taylor slid down along the ropes and collapsed in a heap with his hands by his sides, looking for all the world like a beaten and defenseless fighter.

If anything Smoger did Jermaine a huge favour by stepping in without a count, because if Taylor had somehow managed to rise from that KD which was highly unlikely, Pavlik would have been all over him and a few more concussive shots might well have knocked Taylor out cold. Smoger`s decision to stop it instead of issuing a count was the right call, and Taylor will be much better off health wise for it in the long run.

I will add that Taylor although he lost redeemed himself to an extent last night, as he fought with heart and guts galore, but he just didn`t have the durability to hang in there for the long haul against a banger like Pavlik. He may well rebound from this loss, but in the postfight interview he looked like a broken man both emotionally and physically, and perhaps from now on he may have lingering self-confidence issues. Time will tell on that front, but in the meantime lets enjoy a new middleweight era with a champion who comes to fight and comes to win and is prepared to do both in Kelly Pavlik.