Second thoughts on Wilder vs Fury

You just articulately defined the other side of the coin-equation. Great perspective.

 

Wilder watch from 1.30 min for his trademark.

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How's it hanging, Chris? Long time no viddy.

I think there's a place for demonstrating one's partiality while at the same time keeping it real – for knitting the partisan, the practical and the prognostical into one piece of critical material. I feel like a lot of the pre-fight points you made regarding this matchup were of a superficial and flawed variety precisely because you have a strong historical aversion to Fury (notwithstanding the mask of ersatz objectivity you've applied to your more recent commentary on him) and were keenly rooting for Wilder.

I picked Fury categorically and leaned to the stoppage. Give my pre-fight words a look [url]here[/url] if you have time for a longer read, and let me know what you think of them. My bias is in evidence, I make no attempt to hide it, but my expectations of the outcome of the rematch were based on other factors. I also gave credit to Wilder. (I realize that you will strongly disagree with the opening passages, but those are the least relevant part of the article.)


If you aren't inclined to read a long piece, here are some of the analytical (practical) points I made that turned out to be relevant;

"As much as I respect what Wilder brings to the table, he is walking around with the languid, dopey kind of confidence of a man who isn’t fully cognizant of all he’s facing. He believes he’s seen the best Fury can offer, tasted the hardest punches Fury can hit him with. With that, I think he’s walking into a trap. Fury is capable of toying with him and frustrating him to a point where he may end up delivering himself into the hardy traveller’s arms down the stretch – Wilder’s words from Wednesday’s heated press conference staredown, [url]“and you know the things that you don’t see hurt you the most”[/url], could end up taking on a more ironic prescience than intended – but it would be unwise for anybody (most of all Deontay) to disregard Tyson’s capacity for getting into his man early.

None of us knows exactly how Fury will set about his declared strategy of heightened aggression, nor precisely when he will look to turn the screw. He may have to ride in the whirlwind to get there. He may bring the storm to Wilder first. What’s sure is, only a fool would rule out any of the possibilities when it comes to a character as unreadable as Fury."

"The extent of Fury’s ability to weather a storm was perceptible from the first time he ever faced real embattlement in the ring. His knack for finding a way to hang in there and turn the screw the other way has proven uncanny. It’s a quality that can’t be taught. But Fury showed more than just a massive heart, fine survival instincts and tremendous powers of recovery during that twelfth round in Los Angeles. When he wasn’t admiring his work and backing up in a straight line to allow Wilder a free swing at a home run right hand, he showed that he could exchange fire with him and come out on top, holding his feet (less than a minute after rising from the storied knockdown) and baiting Wilder to launch the right, timing a straighter cross clear down the pipe and simultaneously slipping the bomb in one smooth move, then coming back with the left hook, rocking his man hard and forcing him to hold. Fury’s skills mitigate the risk in exchanging with Wilder. Not all the risk, of course, but enough of it to allow for some calculated gambling.

And when does Deontay Wilder ever really have to exchange, for that matter? It’s true that Wilder, for as different a fighter as he is to Fury, has himself demonstrated some significant degree of innate capacity to abide and conquer – a part of what has made him such an intriguing foil for the Wilmslow man. Wilder’s heart isn’t in question, he’s proven he can shell up and survive a torrid round, but he’s never proven that he can exchange with effectiveness against a really competent world level operator, nor has he proven that he can go slug for slug in the trenches and come out on top. His breakthroughs come as a sniper, at a preferred range. He predicates on the fear factor, the conceit that nobody would ever be foolish enough to set up shop in front of him and throw hands. To a larger extent than that which is immediately obvious, his power has mitigated his technical deficiencies.

Let’s not make Wilder’s mistake of thinking that he can’t be hurt or broken down in this fight. Fury rocked him when he wasn’t training to bang; this time, all the scouting reports suggest that he has prepared to target a knockout. Fury and Sugar Hill Steward will have looked at that twelfth round sequence and seen plenty there to take heart and confidence in. Steward’s fighter is better equipped at long range and in close quarters. There is a specific in-between range that Wilder needs to find in order to get effective work done. Fury can enter that range judiciously, but he cannot afford to be found napping there."

"Both men are coming in heavier, not from sloth, but for strategic purpose. It’ll be interesting to see if one or the other appears perceptibly encumbered by the extra pounds. Wilder’s history on the scale is quite an unusual one. He would ritually tip the scale around the mid-220’s in the two years of learning bouts which led up to his successful shot at Bermane Stiverne’s WBC title, for which he weighed in at 219. After winning the title, he layered on muscle to climb to just shy of 230 for his first three title defences, before plummeting back to the 220 mark by the time of his rematch with Stiverne, dismissing the bulking period as a failed experiment and stating that lighter worked best for him. Indeed, he dropped to 214 for the challenge of Ortiz, then cut to 212 for Fury. The issues he encountered in the latter bout seem to have convinced him that heavier is better after all, as he subsequently came in at 223 for Dominic Breazeale and 219 for the Ortiz rematch. He’s now the heaviest he’s ever been, at 232. Make what you will out of all that. If I were Wilder’s chief second, I’d be concerned about how those extra layers of muscle might take a toll on my charge should the fight go into the mid-late rounds. Fatigue can get you hurt by shots you might otherwise absorb."

"Many who saw Fury’s most recent bout with Otto Wallin last September have been left doubting whether he has it in him to win this fight. They would do well to recall that he hardly looked a million dollars against Sefer Seferi or Francesco Pianeta a few months prior to his heroics in the first meeting with Wilder. This would hardly be the first time that Fury fought down to the level of one opponent – and Fury’s pre-fight comments before ITV’s cameras have proven that Tyson, to his discredit and detriment, did not take Wallin seriously at all – before rising to a much more threatening occasion.

Best believe he’s still the same guy whom sauntered into Wladimir Klitschko’s manor to the tune of Randy Travis’ I’m Gonna Have a little Talk, oozing supreme self-assurance, bereft of any perceptible trace of nerves, before ending the Ukrainian’s decade-long reign by crystal clear decision.

It’s also worth remembering that Otto Wallin is not Deontay Wilder, nor do they fight anything alike."

 

this didn’t age too well