Some very suspicious lines for the upcoming month of showdowns. Joan Guzman -210. This has to be a joke.:admin Vernon Forrest -140. Understandable, but a little surprising. :think Juan Diaz -325. Mainly I'm just pissed at this number. Baby Bull is going to crush Katsidis, just I only wanted to pay something closer to 2-1. Hopefully the Aussies come out in force to drive this down a tad. Pavlik -350 is another one looking ahead to October, but I'm done taking value on Popkins.
I might put down on money on Katsidiz. Not so sure Diaz is going to win. I think he's somewhat overrated. Also, Clottey/Judah is at -240 for Clottey. I'm putting down some money for Clottey.
Clottey is a smart play. I just can never quite bring myself to bet against Zab, silly as that sounds. Diaz isn't overrated, he ran smack dab into a Nate Campbell who happened to be getting his life right at the wrong moment. He's going to finish what Old Man Casa started.
Don't bother with Katsidis man. He ain't beating any top lights with that defence and questionable chin, and thats not even getting into him being prone to cuts and a huge risk.
I like that Forrest is coming off at -140. I think he's lost it and I imagine that Mora will beat him again, even if it's not a particularly exciting fight--unlike the "Rematch of the Year" label that GBP put on it in the Casamayor/Marquez advertisement. Guzman at -210--I assume that will put Campbell around +190 or so--gives me ample reason to go with the Galaxy Warrior. Even though I slightly favor the Dominican, I don't make him a 2 to 1 type.
Those Guzman odds surprised me too. I consider Campbell the hardest matchup for him at LW, but I still favor Guzman comfortably. The odds are that good only because Campbell is being underrated like always. The odds for Guzman to beat Soto were close to even and that was an easier matchup for him.. funny how that works. Wow, great odds on Forrest. It would surprise me a lot if he doesn't show up in better condition this time. When he simply threw punches, he was winning, it's not a hard styles matchup or anything for him. To win, all he needs to do is not act alive. The odds on Juan Diaz are good too. $325 gets you $100 in a fight that most reasonable posters can't see Katsidis having a chance in. The Diaz by KO odds should be very good too. Damn.. I didn't expect Pavlik to be that big of a favorite. I favor Hopkins slightly and think even at his old age, his style is horrible for Pavlik, so around +260 odds for him are great.
I admit, i've only seen two Diaz fights. The Campbell fight and another one against no name guy a year or two ago. Maybe i'm just ignorant to how good he is. Maybe i'm overrating Katsidiz. I just love his warrior spirit and style. And i'm leaning on towards putting more money on Clottey. The ESB members seem to be unanimous in thinking that Clottey will win. That says a lot. :good
Diaz is basically a very refined version of a Katsidis type of fighter with much more stamina, higher punch output, faster hands, a much better chin, much better timing/accuracy, and much better technical skills than Katsidis. Plus, Diaz actually knows what a jab is and how to use it. He uses it damn good too. The only advantage Katsidis has is power, which doesn't matter because Diaz has a great chin and is very tough. I favor Judah to beat Clottey, but I could see Clottey winning if Judah doesn't show up 100%. But betting on Clottey, who's a favorite is pointless IMO. Judah has the styles advantage and is more skilled. He is troubled by pressure fighters and Clottey isn't that.