Sergio was a pretty good mover at his best, was tough, and could crack himself. I can see him getting dropped by Canelo, but I see Sergio winning based on his feet and high work rate⦠he could def get caught and in trouble though.
Epic fight that has such an interesting clash of strengths and weaknesses that Im not really sure who winds up imposing themselves on the other. I suppose I would lean towards Canelo to edge out a super competitive fight. I think Martinez would ultimately be more vulnerable to his pressure and power than Canelo would be of Martinez's movement and power. I think Canelos a bit more defensively sound, and while Martinez would throw more punches I think theres a decent chance he winds up getting caught with a counter as he starts to slow down and Canelo starts closing the distance on him. Then factor in I think Canelo takes Sergios power better than Sergio takes Canelos. Though if he doesnt get dropped, I could see his movement and workrate winning enough rounds to win a close dec too. Epic matchup, Ill go Canelo by late tko or close ud due to knockdowns, or Martinez close UD if he stays on his feet due to banking rounds early with movement and workrate. I have it 55/45 for Canelo as I sliiiiightly favor Canelos educated pressure to start giving Martinez problems down the stretch. Great fight
Canelo, I reckon. He kept up a high pace in the Golovkin fight and gassed less than usual. He's a bit flatfooted, so Martinez has a mobility advantage, but ginger has always been good at figuring out the timing of guys and then dropping the house on them. I don't like Martinez being defensively irresponsible with his hands and Canelo is fast enough to clip him sooner or later. Ginger also has a fabulous chin, much better than Sergio. On the plus side, Martinez is better looking.
I think Canelo will catch up to Martinez eventually. I never liked fighters fighting with their hands down and I will always maintain the position that they're going to get caught sooner or later. Look the Chavez/Martinez fight where Chavez nearly had Martinez out in the final round. Martinez is flashy, but his fundamentals are not strong like Canelo's. And fundamental fighters always have the advantage. Canelo by late TKO.
Those fighters with the hands-down style always look phenomenal until they meet the right opponent, at which point they either know how to fight with their hands up or they lose. Always fun to watch those fighters come up through the ranks but they tend to lose eventually, whether it be at borderline world level like Josh Kelly or the top level like Naz. For Martinez, has to be an elite-level opponent though which GGG 2-era Canelo certainly was.
Another example is Tszyu/Judah. Caleb Plant is another example. These kinds of fighters always get caught at the elite level. I liked Martinez, but I think many people were aware that he avoided GGG. He knew what would have happened if he fought GGG.
Plant is probably the best example haha, great call on that one. Everyone gets hit with solid shots when fighting top-level opposition, those kind of fighters just take the punches worse because they tend to eat them clean. Plant's stamina issues make it even worse: he looked like the slickest fighter in the world against lesser opposition in his prime, but put him in there against a skilled puncher and he gets beaten to a pulp in the second half of the fight.
I voted Sergio but my assumption is the fight is held in Buenos Aires. Anywhere else obviously Canelo gets the decision.
Chavez Jr caught Martinez once and almost KO'd him so I don't like his chances against PED'd Canelo at all and I like Martinez. By that point Canelo was a dangerous puncher which is why Golovkin wouldn't brawl him. Whenever Golovkin felt little punching threat he just ran through them and ate punches trying to take them out. When he was worried about the punching he fought like he did against Stevens, Lemieux, Canelo ...
With legit officiating, I lean toward Martinez to outbox Canelo and win a solid UD on points, but where are you realistically gonna find that for this fight?