This is a very very hard fight to call. One thing that is to be expected, both guys will be ready for this fight. Both guys are powerful, both guys are very good on the ground, but i give Serra the slight advantage, I give Hughes a slight advantage stand up. I have never seen Serra be outclassed by anyone, but he has not had many fights over the last two years. i have seen Hughes go down hill but he is still a very dangerous fighter. If i had to call the fight it would be Serra winning 60 times (40 submissions and 20 KO's) and Hughes winning 40 times (30 Ko's and 10 submission)
Serra's stand up is OK, Hughes stand up is OK. the fight is hard to call because these guys wont really be using any kind of boxing or muay Thai skills, it will be more of a Hulk smash kind of fight.
What? Hughes has subbed tons of really tough guys on the ground and has some of the worst standup you'll find. Serra actually has decent boxing skills and has only subbed one really lousy guy on the ground. Prime for prime this isn't even close; Hughes crushes him. IMO this fight will turn on who has recovered less from injuries and how far Hughes has gone down hill. Serra is no GSP as we saw in the second fight, and he's nowhere near as big and powerful as Alves. I'll really be pulling for Serra in this one, but I think Hughes will have enough left in the tank to beat him.
This fight is gonna be Hughes Ground and Pounding Serra....and pretty much thats it. He may stop him, he may not.
Yeah. I'm not sure what percentage of his peak Hughes would have to be to lose this fight. If he can't take Serra down then we could start to think that Hughes is in trouble, but if he can take him down (and if he's 60% of his old self, he will) then it'll be ground and pound, pass, ground and pound, rinse and repeat. I don't see any way Serra would sub Hughes and I doubt he could KO him either. It'll either be a Serra decision or a Hughes KO/decision.
I don't know, I think Hughes has been on the decline lately, especially in the confidence department, where Serra seems to have had been gaining a lot of momentum and confidence at least up until he lost to GSP, which is not a bad thing. If you look at how Hughes had trained for GSP, he seems a lot more resigned, less competitive than he had been in years past. That air of over-confidence, and conceitedness seems to be gone from him, I think it gave him a huge, huge boost in many intangible ways in the categories of mental dominance, mind games vs other opponents, and self confidence. I think the cycology of Hughes has changed significantly, which in turn effects how he fights and trains. I favor Serra, but I think Hughes was the better prime fighter, quite easily. I don't really like Hughes, but the guy used to have a ton of fire, very good technical wrestler, and always very determined.
I'm a huge Serra fan but I wouldn't be surprised to see Hughes score the takedowns and grind out a long boring decision. Neither one has any striking skills to speak of - so it will pretty much come down to a battle of grappling disciplines: wrestling vs jiujutsu. UFC rules always favor the wrestler over the submission specialist.
I say Serra ends it by TKO in the 2nd round. I know Serra isn't that great, but I just haven't seen a good Matt hughes in quite some time. I used to be a big Hughes fan too lol....
Serra wins by KO or TKO. Serra's stand up is better than hughes and he is the bigger puncher of the two. On the ground will be an interesting fight since hughes is one of the best wrestler going up against a black belt BJJ.
Hughes wins, wont be close, and who cares. Serra doesnt have a shot in hell of beating Hughes. Both are awful standup fighters, and Hughes when hes not getting his head caved in by GSP is a very good grappler, one of the best at 170.
How the hell is Serra some big puncher now? He's decent and certainly better than Hughes but come on, he's no GSP and certainly no Alves. Take away the one moment against GSP and he has exactly zero knockouts. Just because Hughes looked bad against the one of the best fighters in the world and the HUGE Alves doesn't mean anything in regards to how he'll handle a much smaller and less athletic guy in Serra. For christsake, Serra should still be at 155. This will probably be a boring LNP beatdown decision or maybe stoppage by Hughes.
Its interesting no one can agree on whats going to happen in this fight, who is good at what and what game plan both fighters are going to use. Its interesting because both guys don't have stand up skills but have big power, but Hughes likes to ground impound and Serra tries to use B Ju Jitsu on the ground. If i was forced to bet i would bet on Serra just because Hughes has not won in a while but Hughes is a better fighter than Hughes in his prime.
At their very best I pick Hughes but now its 50/50, might even lean towards a Serra win, Hughes looks more past it than Serra IMO.
