I'm leaning towards Shafikov. You guys should watch the Usmanee fight. Barthelemy has been fighting guys that wait around on the outside, and he's eating them alive. I think he'll struggle hard against Shafikov who gives non-stop pressure.
Barth is just too long and skillful to be outpointed by Shafikov. Normally I'd predict Barth by UD but I'd not be surprised if this ended with a KO once Shafikov reach the point of no return on the cards around 8-9. I could be wrong though but we'll see.
Barthelemy does look amazing when he's fighting guys from the outside. Still, his opponents have been waiting around for Barthelemy to throw. I think Barthelemy has stamina problems if he's forced to throw several punches a round, which is what he'll need to do to keep Shafikov off him. Shafikov looked damn impressive against Nugaev.
He looked great, but I think it was a flattering performance to some degree because of Nugaev being something of a one dimensional, if hard hitting and very durable fighter. I'm hoping this is going to be a great fight, and give us some answers on Rances. He's a good fighter, but the size difference in some of his last several fights (Fahsai Sakkreerin and Saucedo) was comical. Then there's the Usmanee affair. Who knows. Two of Shafikov's last several fights were against very big at the weight guys, 5'10 Mensah and Nugaev. He doesn't seem to struggle too much against size. I don't think he would have made it as far as he have if he did. He's 5'5 1/2.
That wasn't the only time Shafikov has looked great. His worst night is the one most people seem to know him for (Miguel Vázquez, who typically makes everybody look bad while schooling them...and who may be 1-2 in his last three but arguably doesn't have a legit defeat since Canelo 7½ years ago) based on which a lot of people seem to write him off as unskilled. In reality he is probably up there with the most skillful lightweights, top 5 h2h.