That won't happen...even in the 12th round AA punches are strong enough for a vicious KO...just have a look at the fights against Ayala (even if he is a 2nd class boxer) or Gevor (monster KO which was really vicious...it looked like Gevor's neck was broken). Pav by dec, AA by KO...I'll go for AA
Pavlik hurt Jermain Taylor in the 11th with a body shot and that fight was pretty active. Don't look for Kelly to tire against the turtle shell. Expect the turtle shell to tire against Kelly.
Yes Pavlik needs to take advantage of the fact that he is a good 5-5 1/2 inches taller than Abraham, establish his jab and maintain a distance between he and Arthur.