So, ESB, is Cotto over Margarito a foregone conclusion?

Yup, so its a location bet for 2 weeks lets say. I'll put anything you want up, or use any avatar even and you do the same. I got Cotto by stoppage, you can have ALL OTHER outcomes....hows that? :good

 

:good Sounds good to me Dawg. One question, do you win even if its a contentious "cuts" stoppage???? ie. Fight is evens, ref stops it coz Margo has a cut up face?

 

If Cotto is awarded a victory due to any kind of stoppage, I win the bet. If Margo pulls out with a separated shoulder after 5 and Cotto is up on the cards, I win. :good

 

:good Agreed then, I aint too concerned, just as long as Cotto wins :deal

I might now be screaming for him to "take it easy" on Margo though

 

Margo should take this fight he has been waiting for this kinda of fight with a big name star for YEAR'S:hey

 

:rofl I'm gonna be up screaming spitting corona and chicken wings everywhere whenever Cotto hits him

 

You know it!

 

Margarito wins by knockout.

I've posted the many reasons why I pick Margarito in this matchup before. However I guess I can do so again.

Alot of this has to do with three main sections. Those sections being

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: Defensive posture,

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: Physical Advantages,

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: Endurance.

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- Miguel Cotto fights with a split guard defense. This leaves him vunerable for work down the center like right hands and uppercuts. Margarito's main arsenal is the uppercut and the right hand. Cotto also likes to have his feet set to throw in combination and this will leave him a stationary target for Margarito.

Many people who pick Cotto point towards the Clottey fight for proof that Margarito can be beaten by smaller, faster boxers. Clottey however fights with a shell guard. That shell guard is the best defense against uppercuts and right hands. It is better than the split guard because the elbows meet at the bottom and deflect uppercuts very well. Clottey doesn't have to worry about the punches coming back because he is blocking just about everything with that guard. It is the same guard Winky Wright uses to great effect.

A shell guard can only be beaten by sheer strength or clever boxing. The best way is to do what Margarito did and just punch anywhere you can land. And that is how he wore Clottey out late in the fight. However he had to miss lots of punches in order to do so. And by miss I mean land on the arms and elbows.

He will not have to do this against Cotto. Cotto's split guard will leave him with two blind spots. One underneath as he is leaning in to land punches and another up top whenever he tucks his chin to withdraw from combat. Margarito is very keen on landing the uppercut underneath and that long overhand right as the opponent is trying to duck out.

For the above reasons I expect Margarito to land at a rate that will surprise many here.

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- Miguel Cotto is a stout 147. He is a lot like Sebastian Lujan in physical form. Margarito however is just the bigger guy. He has the strength to deal with Cotto inside and he has the reach to nail Cotto with long right hands and uppercuts as Cotto tries to move in and out. If you notice in the Lujan fight once Margarito found his range he was plastering Lujan with uppercuts and right hands. That is because Lujan found himself on the end of Margarito's jab. And because he was stuck on the end of Margarito's jab, he had to reach for those left hooks and right hands. This left him even moreso open for the uppercut.

When Cotto is forced to reach he will lean in. And that will create a huge blind spot underneath for Margarito's uppercut. Cotto will have to counter off the jab or try and lead with his own jab but just because the little guy gets off first doesn't mean the bigger guy doesn't have the last laugh. Margarito's reach can negate any footwork advantage Cotto has. If Cotto tries to stick a jab and move out Margarito's overhand right will be a big threat.

If Cotto elects to work inside of Margarito's length he's going to have to watch the uppercuts. Despite being the smaller guy Margarito's uppercuts can cut up a smaller man inside. Margarito is a very underrated body puncher and I think Cotto is going to face a lot of damage downstairs here. Much moreso than he has in previous fights. Margarito can be very akward with his attacks. He can catch you moving out and he can catch you trying to lead as well. He doesn't always wait on the counter. So timing him is extremely difficult.

I think for the reasons above Margarito will do better than most think on the inside. And he will still be a danger if Cotto elects to move all night.

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- Both guys are extremely tough. Both would have to take a tremendous amount of damage to be forced to quit. But Cotto has shown a tendency to be hurt by opponents for much longer than Margarito. Usually if we see Margarito hurt with a good shot he's over it within seconds. Cotto however shows lingering effects. With Cotto it can be the whole round he's hurt. And that isn't a good sign against a guy like Margarito. He's a guy who will go upstairs and downstairs with punches to get you out of there.

Margarito is also a very underrated puncher. No he doesn't always put everything on every punch he throws. But in some fights he does. He bombed out Lewis, Gomez, Kyvelos very early and he also landed some very hard punches on Williams, Santos and Cintron. The saving grace for both Santos and Williams is that they are big guys. Santos at 170lbs can absorb the kind of punch a strong welterweight can dish out. Even then Santos was troubled by Margarito's punching power. Enough so that he looked weary at times. Williams did too. Cintron folded after a few rounds of body shots. Something that seemingly goes unnoticed from the first encounter.

We all know Cotto can punch too. But I think what Cotto brings Margarito has seen before. He has seen that kind of power. I am not sure if Cotto has seen the kind of power Margarito can display. Like Williams, Margarito often just throws to land. He can be decieving with his power. But either one of these guys can do serious damage if they sit down on their punches.

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The more I look at this the more I can see Margarito getting an early knockout. I am not sure Cotto has what it takes to stand up to Margarito if Margarito hurts him and starts swinging for the fences on every shot, upstairs and downstairs. I think it's a given that Cotto will need to hit Margarito a lot to hurt him. However I don't think that is true the other way around. Margarito can definately hit Cotto with one or two solid punches and hurt him badly. We've seen him do it before to other opponents. And with those punches coming from such akward angles it's likely to be a punch that Cotto doesn't even see.

Anyways that is the gist of it. The smaller banger versus the bigger banger. I just think Cotto is fighting an uphill battle in this one.

 

margo's thin frame wont last when he gets hit in the body...

 

Ambition knows his ****, he gets a little carried away with Margo though. It was a good post, but it was obviously one side of the story. Margo has never faced a fighter on the level of Cotto....end of story, so there really is no comparison to Lujan or Johnson, or Cintron or whom ever. Cotto has faced Judah and Mosley. They aren't the same type of fighter by any means as Margo so that isn't even that great of measuring sticks, but they are at least at or above the level of Margo.

 

This fight can either go two ways.

- Miguel Cotto boxes beautifully on the outside, and runs for cover in the last rounds like he did against Mosley. This will win him a unnamious decision as he is the much more accomplished boxer, and those body shots will slow Margarito down considerably.

- Margarito comes out like a bat out of hell and piles on the pressure with shots from all angles, and beautifully placed uppercuts. Miguel Cotto is forced to go toe to toe and eats a really hard shot that staggers him. Margarito piles on more pressure, and the ref saves Cotto from more punishment.

Miguel Cotto has the ability to throughly outbox Margarito like Paul Williams did even without the reach. Still, Cotto has shown a vunerable chin, and I think Margarito hits harder than Zab Judah (who wobbled Cotto several times). Antonio Margarito won't be getting stopped by Cotto or anybody at welterweight.

I favour Cotto, but I wouldn't be shocked or even surprised if Margarito stops Cotto in the 8th.

 

Good post. I got Margo by KO for the same reasons. And I wouldn't be surprised if Margo gets an early TKO/KO