if you listen to most people he doesn't stand a good chance. i disagree with most people this time. i think he's gonna win.
Vitali looks old, is old and fights old. So, it wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that if the fight gets into the later rounds, Vitali could become exhausted which might present the opportunity for Arreola to outwork him on way to a close UD, or perhaps even stop him. The PROBLEM with this scenario is; Arreola doesn't look like he has the conditioning to fight hard for 12x3. I haven't seen much of Arreola though, tbh. So I'd need some more information on his chin in particular before I could make a firm prediction.