I don't see it that way in fact I think it's the opposite. Sure Matias does have a punchers chance as the Garcia fight showed he can be hurt. But Haney has even better movement than Paro and better counters and Matias doesn't have the hand speed or foot speed of Garcia or fight from range like Garcia which forced Haney to try and close the range. Matias also takes a few rounds to get going so he's going to be fighting at a deficit on the scorecards from the beginning, I don't see him winning a decision, his only chance is stopping Haney. In the end Matias is a guy who only looks good if you stand and trade with him and Haney is never doing that and Matias doesn't have the skills from range to force Haney to try and stand with him so he gets out boxed and again loses, exposing again Matias' inability to deal with boxers who don't just stand and trade and make him look good.
Matias has fast handspeed. He moves/plots his feet slowly to play to his style. Something you failed to mention. Size and Haneys poor defense. Matias is genuinely bigger than Haney. Hes 5"10 and stands toe to toe with 5"10 guys at 140. That boxrec height isnt accurate. Haney spent so much time rehydrating his body at 135, he isnt strong and hasnt had a KO since 2019. Haney is 5"8 and wont be able to utilize his size against Matias like he did against Loma and the other many 126lbers who Haney weight bullied. Liam Paro who isnt small himself would give Haney problems. Hitchins has a good chin and took good power shots from Lemos and Paro. Haney doesnt absorb power well, see his fight with Linares, Diaz, Loma and Garcia. Matias hits much harder and swarms at 97 punches per round. It would the worst style match up for Haney. Haney cant defend a lead hook and that's Matias best punch. Matias also doesnt fight like Regis. For every punch Haney throws, Matias throws 7 in return. Countering Matias is risky. Devin will be touched and will be hit. Matias has paralyzing power and he doesnt rely on 1 punch. Devin wont have his legs by round 6. Whats your gameplan for when Haney loses his legs by round 5 and he can't distance and circle the ring? Whats Haney gameplan when Matias cuts off the ring and punishes him for clinching? Matias is because dangerous of his jab, ability to cut off the ring and his infighting/being dangerous in the clinch. Matias knows how to reach his opponents because he knows how to cut off the ring and Matias is 5"9 with a 72 inch reach. He has a very good ability to shorten his punches which increases his accuracy. Matias knows how to slip his shots in between his opponents loops. Check the Ponce fight to see Matias utilize this. If you hold Matias you're getting beat up. Matias throws 100 punches a round and he only throws more when the rounds get deeper. His style beats slick boxers. When you sign to fight Matias it's akin to walking up to the gates of hell and unlocking and opening them. There is a reason why Bill Haney declined negiotations with Matias. Bill Haney made up a fake story about Peter Khan and a fake 2.5 million offer. The Haneys dont want a fight with Matias. Yeah Paro beat Matias but he was never the same again. Haney has no power, size or defense to deal with Matias. Haney skill set is highly overrated too because hes closer to Devon Alexander than Floyd.