I got Matias in this one, Smith is a decent Euro-level fighter, but I think Mathias's style is all wrong for him. Think it'll be a great fight while it lasts but I see Matias grinding Smith down and stopping him late.
Smith is actually very talented and looks the part when he lets his hands go but that's the big problem with him: He has a real aversion to doing so which is literally the complete antithesis of Matias who doesn't stop punching from start to finish. Smith can punch pretty hard and Matias is very tough and can be hurt so Smith has a puncher's chance and he will probably have success moving and outboxing Matias for spells, but how is he going be able to keep Matias off of him all night without running and holding like crazy when he likes to fight at a pace which isn't even Matias' first gear? Barring Smith catching Matias with something huge and taking him out which no one has ever done, Matias should grind him down at some point and force Smith's corner to pull Smith out in the corner in between rounds