Easy for Sung Kil-Moon. Medel is excellent but his greatest attribute is his ability to set traps and to fall for traps you have to think when you fight, recognize things like feints and punching patterns, things as foreign to Moon as setting up his shots or footwork. Moon mauls him, he pushes him around, he headbutts him, and occasionally he even lands a punch en route to a technical decision sometime in the mid rounds.
This could go Medel's way, I think Moon's gung ho style could be dangerous against someone with Medel's power. I can see Medel sitting back on the ropes and counterpunching like he did in Harada 1 and McGowan. Moon was a very strong swarmer with a good punch but for me his lack of finesse would go against him against a very seasoned Medel.
Moon had brutal power and a damn good chin. If Medel laid on the ropes, or hung back looking for a perfect counter to hurt Moon with i've little doubt he'd be run over and soundly outworked.The kind of punishment he took against Harada the first time to spring that trap would leave him in a bad way against Moon. Medel could fight in a more conventional ring-centre box-fighting manner too though, and it's possible his better skills and punching craftiness along with his own very good dig could allow him to win a bruising war. Ultimately i think he's too willing to be backed up and play counterpuncher, which while being quite hittable as he is... is the wrong way to beat Moon. 60\40 for Moon, though he's a hard one to assess because of his short career and prime really.Sometimes i think at his best he can be great steamroller at 115 and 118, but at the same time he'll always be vulnerable to getting schooled and technically outpunched if a fighter can handle his power and\or unorthodox pressure.
Yeah, Medel would likely walk Moon into harder shots than he's ever taken but hewas barely hurt against Konadu and with his chin he'd maul Medel to a decision, or as LittleRed wisely hypothesised, a TD in the mid-rounds after numerous head butts.
