Danny Garcia is the rightful favorite in this fight, no question about it. He's the better fighter, close enough to his prime (although he probably peaked September 14th, 2013), and fighting an opponent who not long ago retired after being paraded as destroyed goods. But why in the hell is he a 40 to 1 favorite against a potentially rejuvenated Brandon Rios? Bam Bam is a plodder who has few answers to speed, but Danny isn't as Swift as he thinks himself. Rios couldn't hang with the two elite fighters on his resume (Pacquiao and Bradley), but Garcia's skill set is quite different from those two and actually more suitable for Rios. Bam Bam has quite a bit more mileage on him, but is only two years older. Garcia has a had a unique run winning big as an underdog against Khan and Matthysse but struggling with opponents he was heavily favored against in Herrera and Peterson (both tough fighters and the latter a tough out for anyone). He has also built significant equity against ripe names in Campbell, Morales x2, Judah and Malignaggi. The bookies see a blowout, I see a fight. Bam Bam opened at +1000 and quickly jumped to +2000. I may be biased, or blinded, as a long time fan of Bam Bam but if they were to fight twenty times do you think Garcia would be able to go 20-0? And if you were to back Swift, do you think he could run the table for a 40-0 sweep? I'm picking Garcia to win, but I just don't see how these odds are justified.
It's very unlikely Rios takes him out, and just as unlikely he will get the nod from the judges as he wins a close fight against him in most viewers eyes. So there's hardly any path to victory for Rios in here. I think 40 to 1 is a bit too wide, but I wouldn't give him past a 5% chance to pull it off.