Tarver would have to KO to have a chance in this fight. Look at his struggles with Glen Johnson. Johnson's prime aspect? Workrate and Stamina. Joe is a faster puncher than Johnson, with even higher workrate and stamina, I say he simply out hustles Tarver to a victory unless Tarver lands a huge bomb and KO's him.
Tarver didn't have trouble with Johnson. They split and the time he lost, it was a SD and i think he closely but clearly won that one also. When that fight happened, Johnson was coming off of his KO of RJJ and i think the judges were giving a bit too much credit to Johnson's aggression while Tarver picked his spots and landed the cleaner and harder shots.
Yep, I remember being shocked that the decision went to Johnson after the first fight. It seems like Lampley was going crazy when Johnson would have Tarver on the ropes, even though he wasn't landing signifigantly. I agree the judges may have given Johnson too much credit, having the Jones victory months earlier.
No matter what people say (he is universally disliked), Tarver looked smoking against woods. It was a one sided clinical display. This is the man who beat Jones twice as well. When he turns up he is pretty good - he can also be atrocious. Personally I wouldnt put the house on Calzaghe - though he has the edge. Tarver is aging though, and he may well gas.