Observe: [yt]dKwAqxNFbqQ[/yt] [yt]taficp4pa3A[/yt] [yt]Pd68pGcJ0PI[/yt] [yt]yMGvqTxNJMA[/yt] [yt]iy1_PA2p9lw[/yt] I feel this is some of the most relevant footage available whilst trying to analyze this fight, and who will emerge victorious on Saturday. - This was a close fight. I scored it to Pavlik by 2 rounds, an extremely good performance from Taylor in a mentally challenging scenario after the first fight. Let's now assume that this best version of Taylor turns up, along with the Froch that fought Jean Pascal. This is fair, two of their better performances on a world level against stylistically similar operators in both cases. - I often hear Pavlik's successes as being the blueprint for Froch winning this fight. What, if anything, does Froch do similarly to Pavlik that would suggest this is the case? In other words, what does Froch do better or on a close enough level to Pavlik?
Somebody please take me up on this. Did people see something in the Pavlik fights that reaffirms their belief Froch will win? What is it? I'm trying to get to the bottom of why Froch is going to win.
I watched this fight live and was hoping JT would do the business, I thought he was doing well but faded down the stretch. I also watched Froch V Pascal again the other day, as you point out Froch is slow as ****. I'm a fan of both so I don't really care who wins, unless Froch can nail JT with one of those big uppercuts I think he's in for a schooling - speed kills.
He did. Pavlik nicked it at the end, just the extra stamina did it for him. Taylor threw half as many punches but was generally very effective.
Another factor is Froch's power. Is Pascal granite chinned? Or has Froch's power been overhyped? I reckon it is more the latter, and I can't see him landing as much as Pavlik because he is slower.
Froch doesn't apply pressure anywhere near as effectively as Pavlik, unless Taylor has slipped (and he may well have) then I don't see Froch being able to follow Pavilks blueprint.
Pascal was hurt by Omar Pitman more than he was Froch, its fair to assume he can be hurt. Froch's problem was his hands are seriously SLOW. He telegraphed everything and gave Pascal time to either partially block it or ride with the shot. He also ducked down a lot.
Absolutely! This is the crux of the point I'm trying to illustrate. Why do I keep hearing "If Pavlik can do this..." as an argument for Froch's case? Pavlik has by far the snappier and more consistent jab, compared to Froch. Why do I keep hearing about Froch's "long jab". Pavlik's is longer, and..well...just better. Pavlik has by far the superior handspeed to Carl Froch, and is a more fluid combination puncher. Two things I never thought I'd be able to say. Pavlik has a higher work-rate than Carl Froch, and a superior engine. Carl was running on fumes after 6 rounds against Pascal, Pavlik stole this fight with his incessant punching. Pavlik keeps his hands high at all-times, picking off some of Taylor's shots. Carl Froch keeps his hands low at all-times, and eats shots. As we saw against Pascal. Froch has a few things in his favour. His heart and desire. His being a super middleweight. The Pavlik blueprint? No.
What Pavlik did has nothing to do with it. Unfortunately for Froch I think it comes down to whether Taylor comes with the right mindset of which there is no guarantee. Also if Taylor fades then he could very well get caught late, as I feel Froch has the power to trouble him. Froch isn't in a great position considering that it really depends on how Taylor is mentally. However I'm picking Froch because I'm really banking on Taylor not having the desire to go the 12 and win and maybe the stamina. And there's a wee bit of bias in there too but hey...
Not particularly. But he doesn't need to really. If his chance is to stop taylor he needs one solid punch to land, to rock Taylor, then he can unload. Plus he doesn't have a very high workrate. However Taylor is going to need to out box, so he's going to need to keep throwing. Stamina I feel is more of an issue for him. He needs it more than Froch in a way. Weird perhaps but still..one punch can change everything.
In these type of close fights where theres a lot of ifs and maybes I always go for the guy whose fight it is to lose. IMHO its Taylors to lose.
Because you are a glass half empty kinda guy. I go for the whos fight it is to win, looking at styles.
The way I look at it the glass half full, its Taylors fight unless he's slipped mentally/ physcially and I'm picking Taylor. A glass half empty guy would assume Taylor had slipped and pick Froch.