I think not that Dawson was too drained, nor do I think Dawson did bad at all. In fact, I just think (and honestly saw) that Ward has finally lived up to the promise he made to his fans - to be working on his knockout-punches. And he seems to have done so. It made Dawson seem less than he is, but in fact, it's just that Ward is on his way to develope killer punches now. He's evolving.
Chad was not only weight drained, he was completely unprepared for Ward. Chad showed no foot-movement, his footwork was terrible, and he was fighting Ward in the pocket, he was basically a sitting duck. Not to take anything away from Ward's performance, but almost anyone can have beaten Dawson that night, he was out of it both mentally and physically. Also Dawson's boxing skills have declined under Scully. Ward was a 4-1 favorite because many boxing critics were not impressed by Chad's performance against Hopkins. If Dawson struggled against a 47 boxer who had a low workrate, the experts knew he couldn't beat Ward. Chad was asking for a loss and he got it. Ward being the favorite was a no brainer.
Chad was drained BUT... To be fair, a lot of people had Dawson beating Ward because they fancied him as a "less experienced Hopkins". Let's be real about that. The reason Dawson lost is also the reason why he was so willing to go to 168 for the fight... He underestimated Ward. Just like everyone else does. Plain an simple.
I just think he's not very good against fighters that fight at an intensity. He looks good against old men who fight at a slow pace. But put him in with an average youg fighter who has intensity like Pascal and Dawson appears Gun Shy. Thats how he looked against ward. Gun shy!