The argument for a Bernard Hopkins win

Hopkins is an old man.

He won't have the reflexes to counter someone as quick as Calzaghe and Hopkins going on the offensive would be horrid. Hopkins has nothing. Absolutely nothing. Less than Bika, not much more than Manfredo.

 

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If the two fighters were matched physically, your point about styles would be critical.

 

I'd hate to be facing a counterpuncher who is significantly slower than me and has faded reflexes and average power!

This is like saying David Tua would struggle against Ike Quartley because he has a solid jab.

 

Looking at their records having never seen Kessler and believing the hype. I actually was going with Kessler, I have always thought Calzaghe overrated and not really a big fan of him anyhow. However after watching footage of Kessler on youtube against Andrade & Beyer he did not impress me and almost seemed to have a mechanical style with no plan B. So I changed my mind and picked Calzaghe UD.

For this fight against Hopkins to be honest I have not really been able to come up with a winning scenario for B-Hop. If you look closely at his record he has not stopped anyone since 2004 and this was DeLaHoya who was a blown up Welter, the previous year we have a stoppage of Morrade Hakkar (who is he I hear you say) a nobody with only one notable win over current European S-Middle champ Cristian Sanavia, and prior to that in 2001 another blown up welter Felix Trinidad in the last round. So for me there is only a 10% chance at best of a stoppage win for Hopkins. I see this as a fairly close (certainly closer than against Kessler) Unanimous Decision win for Calzaghe or maybe a very late stoppage win (though I only see at 15-20% chance of this result)

 

The percentages are only rough guesswork looking at records and level of opponents stopped but if you think a stoppage win for either is more likely than 10% & 20% either way then please feel free to let me know what you think ?

 

How can you give a percentage less than 100? Determinism tells us Joe Calzaghe winning is a certainty.

 

The last stoppage of a big name opponent by Calzaghe was Byron Mitchell and he was stopped in the 2nd because he floored Calzaghe. The fight may have gone further were it not for the initial knockdown and this was back in 2003. Manfredo is a blown up L-Middleweight and was not floored or hurt imo, but he should have fired back if he did not want the ref to stop the fight.

 

PrideOfWales, that was a great read. Excellent points.

 

Nothing is a certainty, what I said was there is a 10% chance at best of Hopkins by KO and 15-20% at best of Calzaghe by KO. Calzaghe on points is the most likely scenario.:deal

 

If Calzaghe win was a certainty bookies would have him at 1/50

 

Everything is certain.

 

I am sure you have your life savings on a calzaghe win then ?