The Benavidez vs Morrell prediction thread.

It's a really intriguing match up. Both are talented. Both are offensive juggernauts with tight defence. Both are fast and have good endurance. Both have nice punch arsenals and shot selection. Both were huge for 168 and were beating up on naturally smaller guys down at that weight. Neither looked near as destructive in their 175 debuts against fighters their size as they did down at 168 albeit they both fought good, tough fighters who have only been stopped once a piece and that was by Beterbiev who stops everyone sans Biviol.

But Morrell is the more athletic, explosive and powerful of the two and I think the chances of him hurting Benevidez with single shots are significantly higher than the reverse, unless Morrell's chin which we don't know too much about other than the Hot Rod fight is weak that is, and, like Benavidez, he's a very good finisher when he gets you hurt and the punches will be coming thick and fast from different angles

And Morrell has a 78'' reach which is the same as Usyk's and 3.5'' longer than Benavidez's and if he opts to box and move and catches Benavidez when he's coming in or in between shots he can cause him a lot of problems. But if Benevidez is able to close the distance and get into a rhythm and start landing consistently he might overwhelm Morrell who is very offensive minded and is looking to take your head off.

I see some similarities between this match up with a Super Boots vs Vergil Ortiz one albeit Ortiz hits harder than Benevidez P4P and Super Boots is easier to hit than Morrell.

If we knew more about Morrell and he was more battletested as a pro against world class opposition I'd pick him because my gut feeling which is usually right but not all the time is leaning towards him.

 

Sure, Morrell looked shoddy against Kalajdzic, but so did Benavidez against Gvozdyk. That tends to happen to weight bullies going up to the division they should've been fighting at all along, but deep down knew they couldn't hack it in. By all rights, both were 115-113 type affairs. Also, let us not forget, Hot Rod and The Nail are both quality operators, who while they might be past their sell by dates, they're still a handful for anyone who steps in the ring with them. But The Nail has had the harder fights and is little longer in the tooth. Still, neither of those matches are all that relevant when it comes to them fighting one another. Sure neither seem to have carried their power up, although it seems Morrell have have a little more pop, he stunned Hot Rod a few times, whereas Benavidez's flurries didn't even phase Gvozdyk. So that should be a little worrying to the Benavidez backers. Sure The Nail has an excellent chin, but so does Radivoje. Also, Gvozdyk looked to be there for a paycheck and didn't even try to win until the second half, and when he tried he had success and David looked very uncomfortable. Whereas it was Morrell making Hot Rod look uncomfortable late. Which highlights what I think matters, that most aren't considering, is that Morrell's gas tank looked solid at 175, whereas Benavidez's did not, he gassed after 7 rounds or so. So much so, he was contemplating moving back down to 168, but at this point he physically cannot make it. So he's forced into fighting in a division he's not entirely comfortable in, and quite frankly, I'm not sure 175 is for him either. He's looked quite gaunt in the lead up, like he's struggling to make Light Heavyweight. So how will a badly drained Benavidez gas tank look in the second half of the fight?

Now onto the actual fight, Radivoje made Morrell look bad, because he forced him to take the lead for the majority of the match and played the part of the counter puncher, which clearly a natural counter puncher like Morrell was uncomfortable with. But he warmed to the task over the course of the match. But Morrell isn't going to have that issue with Benavidez, who will be on the front foot marching forward for the entirety of the match. He'll also be marching face first into plenty of nasty straight left/right hook counters, and Benavidez doesn't seem to enjoy fighting southpaws like Andrade or pure boxers for that matter like Plant, Dirrell and Gavril, he has a hard time finding the proper range. Well Morrell is a much bigger and better southpaw than Andrade and is just as good if not better boxer than Plant. Then when you add his extra power to the mix, that could prove problematic for Benavidez. So it's not like Benavidez is going to have his way with him early, like he usually does, he's going to have to take much more incoming fire than normal, so in all likelihood the early rounds will be competitive and go either way. Now if he gasses out again, which he most likely will, because Morrell's defense is pretty solid, so Benavidez will be hitting air a lot, which wears you out quicker. Then in the second half, we'll be left with a sloppy tired Benavidez, who doesn't have great defense to start with, walking into vicious counter right hooks and straight lefts, from a heavy handed power puncher. So yeah, it wouldn't shock me in the least if Morrell pulls a Big Bang Zhang on Benavidez's lumbering Joe Joyce impression.

 

He never came close to hurting Gvozdyk, Gvozdyk visibly reacts negatively every time anyone lands on him clean, it's deceptive. Morrell took Hot Rod's 175 power fine, no sure where all of this bad chin nonsens comes from. It's certainly better than Plant's, who Benavidez couldn't drop even though he was teeing off on him for the majority of the second half of the fight, whereas McCumby was stunning him with every clean punch early on, and Canelo brutally knocked him out. So I wouldn't be so certain if I were you.

 

Who knows? It might be, might not

Gallegos has a KO 85% and has lost twice, once at MW, the other time at 168 two fights ago via stoppage to Diego Pacheco

But he bounced back up at 175 with an upset stoppage win over undefeated and highly touted 9-0 prospect Khalil Coe in his last fight and he looked strong, powerful and a real handful in that one. Some footage of that here

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