The DEFCON-1 Red Alert Warning Thread: If You Have An Upset To Call Then Pound The Alarm!

Not saying that @Drew101, @PinoyProdigy @theanatolian and I are upset calling sages or anything, but... we kind of are. We compete in Kirks Championships which is a Boxing prediction league that's stickied at the top of the General Forum, while we don't always win it or even come close, we're fairly consistent when it comes to predicting upsets that occur in the sport. We're risk takers by nature, an sometimes that comes back to bite us in the ass, which is why we usually don't win, but even when we don't get the called upset right 9 times out of 10, either we were right and there's sketchy scorecards, or we end up being almost right, with our scenario playing out perfectly to a T, only to be brought back down to earth again, by our guy getting KTFO at he last minute. Hey, its Boxing, **** happens. There's even an ongoing joke that if Pinoy, Drew and I all call the upset, its not a case of if it happens, but it will. Regardless, its all in good fun. Its not that big a deal to us, we win some, we lose some. You know... because we're adults and can deal with a loss. So don't use this thread to beat people up with when getting something wrong.

We keep track of all of the upsets called, at least for the last two years, this doesn't include many of the 50/50 matches that were decided by one more person going with the perceived underdog, so we all probably should have at least 10-15 more per year.

This is how we've ranked for the last two since keeping records. I'll add more to my list later, they're free to point out some of their non listed crowning achievements as well.

2017
@Drew101 - 33 (Navarrete, Abduqaxorov, Cherry, Indongo, Ghvamichava, Chavez, Mendez, Rojas, Melindo, Higa, Garcia, Clark, Kownacki, Barrera, Polyakov, Miller, Heraldez, Yamanaka, Roman, Estrada, Rojas, Tepora, Lopez, Lozano, Narvaez, Machado, Braehmer, Kabayel, Ge, Bejenaru, Gamboa, James, Ulysse Jr.)
@theanatolian - 32 (Roman, Berchelt, Kuga, Hammer, Browne, Navarrete, Ulysse Jr., Mansour, Abduqaxorov, Indongo, Mendez, N'Jikam, Higa, Mikhalkin, Ceja, Barrera, Centeno Jr., Heraldez, Abell, Estrada, Rojas, Sexton, Liebenberg, Rosales, Machado, Braehmer, Kabayel, J Thompson, Ge, Bejenaru, Pascal, Ulysse Jr.)
@PinoyProdigy - 29 (Santa Cruz, Kuga, Navarrete, Ulysse Jr., Cherry, Smith, Indongo, Chavez, Melindo, Higa, Mikhalkin, Barrera, Miller, Heraldez, Roman, Iwasa, Rojas, Xiong, Lozano, Narvaez, Liebenberg, Machado, Braehmer, Evans, J Thompson, L Thompson, Charr, Bejenaru, Ulysse Jr.)
@CST80 - 27 (Berchelt, Kuga, Mansour, Wach, Sor Rungvisai, Abduqaxorov, Higa, Mikhalkin, Ceja, Castano, Horn, Avalos, Nery, Heraldez, Roman, Sor Rungvisai, Rojas, Tepora, Xu, Lopez, Narvaez, Ananyan, Machado, Ge, Ogawa, Roman, O’Sullivan)

2018
@Drew101 - 19 (Mock, Ugas, Johnson, Hurd, Dasmarinas, Coyle, Lejarraga, Dogboe, Bellew, Wojcicki, Warrington, Gesta, Wake, Claggett, Alvarez, Doheny, Rosario, Oosthuizen, Welborn)
@CST80 - 17 (Groves, Dalakian, Relikh, Canizales, Johnson, Dasmarinas, Lejarraga, Wojcicki, Warrington, Brubaker, Hooker, Deebook, Berto, Doheny, Rosario, Pedraza, Oosthuizen)
@theanatolian - 16 (Ugas, Dalakian, Kuroda, McDonnell, Juarez, Papazov, Mohammedi, Hurd, Coyle, Lejarraga, Dogboe, Chaniev, Warrington, Ngumbu, Gesta, Claggett)
@PinoyProdigy - 15 (Ugas, Kuroda, Juarez, Mohammedi, Dasmarinas, Lejarraga, Marrero, Boschiero, Brubaker, Mendez, Mthalane, Wake, Whyte, Doheny, Alvarez)



Anyway... to the point of this thread. There's many matches that happen in this sport, year in and year out to choose from, in some cases 20-30 oon certain days, that many people never see mentioned on this site, that are off everyone's radar so to speak, and of course there's the ones everyone knows about. So I put this thread up to provide a safe space so to speak if any of you either based on a gut feeling, a mere inkling, or through a well thought out, well reasoned analysis have come to the realization that in a particular match, the upset is possible or even plausible that you can post it here, with an explanation of how or why you think it'll take place.

In order for you all to not take a ton of heat for getting it wrong, I've set up a system of alerts.

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- These are upsets that you unequivocally or damn close to it believe in.

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- These are upsets that you're warm on, but may have a few reservations.

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- These are upsets you could be possible, but have for various reasons, have little faith in.

Please remember to try to use these, in order to not lead anyone astray.


So, this is a free for all, anytime you think an upset could occur in a well known, well publicized match, or some obscure rinky dink match few have heard of, if you think the upset is possible, well get your ass on here and....

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So did I. But... I said Roman was getting his ass beat the first time around. Which counts for far more.

 

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Its a faith Sasha can pull it off pick. There's absolutely zero evidence Joshua hits harder than Wlad or Price (early). Sasha while rocked here and there by both, he took them well, his head movement is good enough to take the steam off of most of AJ's punches to begin with, but... we can't be sure how well AJ will take one of his. Especially if Povetkin turns up in the best shape of his life and forces the pace. Sure Povetkin looked average against Rudenko and Hammer, but Rudenko has yet to be stopped, not even Lucas Browne could do the job and he stopped Chagaev, Hammer he probably didn't take seriously in the least, and figure he could wing that one... but there's no way Sasha isn't taking this one seriously and training his heart out for. Povetkin will show up fit and ready to lay hands on AJ.


This is ALEXANDER POVETKIN, people need to remember that. Oh... but he looked bad against Price, yeah... fine, but Price also needed oxygen after he got knocked the **** out.

Povetkin has already KO'd Takam more impressively than AJ, because he actually KO'd him. Had Povetkin fought the Wlad that fought Fury and Jennings, with a more stringent ref, who knows what would have happened.

As for the rest.

Charles Martin
Joseph Parker
Dillian Whyte
Dominic Breazeale
Eric Molina

Which one would be a prohibitive favorite over Sasha... really?

Granted, its a risk, because if it goes to the cards, there's always a chance Povetkin will lose on points legitimately or illegitimately, and he's getting old, so he could be done for and ripe for the picking, which is what Hearn has his fingers crossed hoping for. But if a Sasha that's anywhere close to the Sasha of old, or even a slightly better conditioned version than the one that fought Pricey shows up, **** could get interesting.



The second one is....


Askin has a really really big shot at the upset here against Okolie.

Lawrence Okolie isn't only unproven but very unproven especially at the top level, his best win was over Isaac Chamberlain who while decent, he had no genuinely impressive wins to write home about either.

Askin on the other hand is in his physical prime, and has improved his overall ring IQ threefold since his two genuine losses, which ironically was a match he took when he was far too young and inexperienced for it... kind of like Okolie is now, against Glowacki, in a match he was doing okay in, anyway he got stopped really late in the fight. His other loss was to JonLewis Dickinson. Since those two missteps he went on to fight on even terms with, and IMO arguably deserve the win against Ovill McKenzie, but the ref docked him two points, which affected the outcome on the cards. He's been on a hell of an impressive winning streak since then. I've picked two of his upsets, both his wins over Tommy McCarthy and Craig Kennedy, who are probably both a little more skilled than the sloppy as all hell Okolie. Also Askin's utter destruction of Stephen Simmons was quite impressive, no one had come close to obliterating him in that manner.

Now could Okolie be more real than I think, its a distinct possibility, but nothing I've seen of him has shown me he's ready for such a huge step up in competition as this is. Do not be deceived by Matty's record, he's like a Brit Cruiserweight Salido like banana peel. Personally I think Askin at this point is capable of hanging with and beating many of the fighters in and around the top level at Cruiserweight, I can't say the same about Okolie, who'd probably be smashed by the majority of the Top 15.

 

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October 20th Saunders-Andrade undercard.

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This one is a genuine 50/50 crapshoot IMO. Both men are vulnerable with a few losses a piece, but Teenyson's recent run is a little more impressive than Farmer's. Whatever your opinion on the Ogawa match, I thought it was a legit loss, the mere fact that it was a 7-5 type of match either way is a true indication of where Tevin's really at. I picked Ogawa for the upset, and not because I think highly of Ogawa, he's decent but overall just average Japanese fighter, its just that I thought his size and reach, especially his straight rights may prove to be an issue, and I didn't think he'd be phased by Tevin's punches. Whoopee, he just beat Billy Dib, yeah well... Gradovich and Miura demolished Dib a few years ago. So what.

Tennyson, while vulnerable to the body, he was stopped by Ryan Walsh and dropped by Martin Joseph Ward, he also managed to get up off the mat, walk down and destroy Ward, who I rank higher than Farmer, quite frankly I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Ward to beat Tevin as well. Tennyson has gotten into a groove as of late, and is walking through guys most would have picked to beat him a year ago, he stopped Declan Geraghty as well, which is another impressive scalp. So if Tennyson can weather the storm, he's got a hell of a punch on him, one that heavy enough to get the job done.

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Galahad has never impressed me all that much, he was having issues IIRC against Jazza Dickens, a southpaw, before the stoppage. Also he didn't looks super impressive against Cayetano, about Quigg level. Toka while suffering a KO defeat at the hands of Jhon Gemino, that's not a big deal in my estimation, Gemino is one of those Derek Edwards/Darnell Boone type of guys who if they land the right way, can knock anyone the **** out, so it may have just been on of those Badou Jack like moments, other than that, Toka hasn't shown a weak chin. Kahn Clary is very awkward, relentless, tends to swarm his opponents and use all kinds of weird angles, also he's a southpaw and hits fairly hard, both men are fairly untested. Both men could win by KO, both could possibly lose by KO, both can win by UD. This one isn't an easy one to call. I tend to lean Galahad, but with very little confidence.

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Sure Tommy is coming off of stopping Dodd and doing well against Nurse, but he also got dropped several times and stopped by Campbell. O'Connor is above Nurse's level, and without hesitation I pick him to outpoint Nurse and Dodd, not sure ho he'd do against Campbell, that's harder to call. But back to Tommy, this will be in O'Connor back yard, despite losing to Bracero by KO, that was just one of those freak occurrences, its doubtful Tommy can land a haymakers like that. Also Claggett and Tommy are not only in and around the same level, they fight in a similar fashion. From everything I've read, O'Connor outpointed him with relative ease. Tommy will give him all he can handle, but in all likelihood he probably can handle it, at least enough to win a close decision. Am I certain, no... its somewhat risky, but Danny should have enough to outpoint him.

 

Here's the notable matches for the rest of the month. Any opinions?

9/21 - Ismail Iliev vs. Siarhei Rabchanka
9/21 - Aram Avagyan vs. Evgeny Smirnov
9/22 - Jonathan Taconing vs. Vince Paras
9/22 - David Price vs. Sergey Kuzmin
9/22 - Matty Askin vs. Lawrence Okolie
9/22 - Luke Campbell vs. Yvan Mendy II
9/22 - Anthony Joshua vs. Alexander Povetkin
9/22 - Jose Miguel Borrego vs. Cameron Krael
9/24 - Sho Kimura vs. Kosei Tanaka
9/28 - George Groves vs. Callum Smith
9/28 - Thomas Mattice vs. Zhora Hamazaryan II
9/28 - Devin Haney vs. Juan Carlos Burgos
9/28 - Jerwin Ancajas vs. Alejandro Santiago Barrios
9/29 - Tsubasa Koura vs. Daiki Tomita
9/29 - Muhamad Ridhwan vs. Paulus Ambunda
9/29 - Erkan Teper vs. Robert Helenius
9/29 - Zakaria Attou vs. Sergio Garcia
9/29 - Jorge Paez Jr vs. Jose Carlos Paz II
9/30 - Brandon Figueroa vs. Oscar Escandon
9/30 - Victor Ortiz vs. John Molina Jr

 

I give Burgos very little chance, Haney impressed the hell out of me against Menard, I doubt Burgos will get close enough to land anything. Molina however I give a huge chance at the upset, quite frankly I'm not even sure it should be considered an upset at this point. If Victor boxes intelligently, he can pull it off, especially seeing how vulnerable Molina looked early against Redkach, a southpaw, that being said, even if Victor does box intelligently, he still might get KTFO. Haney-Burgos is like 90-10, but Ortiz-Molina is 55-45 in Vicious Vic's favor.