The DEFINATIVE Joe Calzaghe -vs- Bernard Hopkins Analysis!!!

I promised it to you guys...and here it is.

This fight, as we all know has been debated from top to bottom, over and over. Both sides fans and supporters (there is a difference) have broken down strengths, styles, weaknesses, promotional tactics, etc. Most things have been said fairly, some have been so biased you would think it was the fighters parents posting it (for both sides).

I am going to take an approach of breaking down each aspect as much as possible that has been brought up....touching on a few things I have noticed over the buildup and throughout each respective fighters careers. Most of you know, I am picking Bernard...and yes, I will come out early and tell you, he is my favorite active fighter...but those of you that know me, know how much respect and adoration I have for Joe Calzaghe as well. Both fighters being among my favorite all time fighters makes it a little easier for me to be as unbiased as possible (tho there are things many may think I am being biased about...but in all honesty, none is intended).

I started my analysis by pretty much watching each fighters careers again....focusing mostly on their last 5 fights (watching each quite a few times over). I then went back and watched their training camps and open workout videos (as many as I could find)...again focusing mostly on the most recent ones. I read as many articles as I could find on both fighters...statistical breakdowns for their most recent fights...etc. I did more research for this fight than any I have ever done in the past...

So, without further I give you my highly anticipated breakdown of Bernard Hopkins -vs- Joe Calzaghe.

 

-Strengths-

Bernard Hopkins:

Timing - Among the best in the game. Going back and watching his fight vs Winky, I noticed how quickly he is able to throw that lead or counter right the second someone shows a kink in their own defense...and tho some would argue that Winky was blown up and slowed by the extra weight, they are ignoring that a shell defense is based on technique and not speed, movement and reflex. If Hopkins sees an opening, he can exploit it.

Accuracy - Again among the best in the game. Goes hand in hand with what is posted above about timing...when he sees the opening, he is almost instinctive with attacking it...and because of his phenominal accuracy, that attack seems to find its target more often than not. People sometimes look at his punch stats % and mistake a lower number for a slippage in accuracy, when I have noticed (plain as day btw) that as he has aged, he has gone away from using the jab as a weapon...where as lately (since Eastman actually) the jab has become more of a rangefinder...its not meant to land. If you look at his % on landed powershots its STAGGERING. Vs Tarver he landed 37% of these...vs Taylor the 2nd time 42%...vs Taylor the first time 36%...and these are POWER SHOTS...most fighters arent even that accurate with a great jab.

Defense - Again, among the best in the game. Not flashy or based on speed, but technically (chin always tucked even when punching) perfect and based on footwork, knowledge of range, instinct and movement (both head, body and footwork). This also goes hand in hand with the above things making Bernard a fantastic counterpuncher. He is a master at slipping punches and staying in position to fire back at openings.

Ring Intellect - Arguably the smartest fighter to ever step in the ring. He is a tireless worker in preparation and phenominal at outthinking his opponent and making him fight his fight without ever even realizing it. Vs Tarver and Winky you could actually see him plotting his next move, luring his opponent in and then striking...its unbelievable.

Footwork - His lateral movement is superb...always keeping the opponent of balance, never allowing him to set and throw anything worth while. His defensive movement is also tremendous (but we have gone over that). BUT, going back and watching his career, I noticed something...can anyone remember Bernard EVER being off balance? Ever not in position to throw a punch? Ever in harms way? I actually found 1....yes 1 in his past 5 fights, vs Taylor, backtracking he stubbles and falls back into the ropes. THAT IS ONE, in 60 rounds...there is noone and I mean noone else that I can say that about in boxing. Just perfection.

Joe Calzaghe:

Speed - At his size, he is arguably the fastest fighter I have ever seen (I would put only Jones Jr ahead of him). A physical freak of nature in this right. Vs Lacy, you could see that he wasnt ready for this...he would see the punch coming, but because of the unreal speed it was coming in at, there was nothing he could do. Ontop of this, his speed is also deceptive...the way he throws his punches, they dont look fast at the onset, but seem to have a second wind in mid punch. This also allows him to get off 2, 3, 4 punches against an opponent, when the opponent really only gives him time and room for 1. Its utterly amazing.

Workrate - A fighter who has that kind of speed and throws as many punches as Joe does can be a nightmare for anyone. Vs Kessler, his output dropped and he still threw and insane amount of punches...and was able to smother Mikkel totally taking him out of his gameplan (other factors were used, but we will get to those). Calzaghe regularly throws in excess of 1000+ punches...and never is outworked...which leads me to my next strength.

Stamina - At age 36, he has shown ZERO signs of slowing. He is able to stay fresh, fast and strong, late into fights even after throwing 100+ punches a round. With his blazing speed, workrate and in and out movement, most fighters in history would be dead on their stool halfway through a fight...where as Joe is still the stronger, faster guy at the end. Vs Kessler, he was able to weather an early storm and come on later in the fight to broaden the lead and outclass him. He threw a tremendous amount...moved in and out at will and STILL was fresh at the end. Like his speed, he is a freak of nature in this right.

Ability to use angles - Going on all of the above things...the one strength I see as Calzaghe's biggest strength is his use of angles when fighting. His opponent never knows where the punches are coming from. Because of this, coupled with the above mentioned strength, Joe is able to "shell shock" his opponent into curling up into a ball of sorts. When Joe fought Manfredo, he would attack from an angle that Manfredo never expected him to, overwelm him with his speed and workrate, leading to Manfredo being against the ropes, shelled up, trying to avoid everything being thrown at him...leading to the stoppage (early, but really just not prolonging the inevitable anyway). His speed and workrate did the job...but it was the angle with which he used over and over that allowed him to get in position to do that job so easily. This is Joe's greatest asset if you ask me.

(As you may have noticed, I am really only going to touch on the strengths and weaknesses that pertain to each fighter against each other...as opposed to all of their strengths...as that would be unneeded and has been beaten to death)

 

-Weaknesses-

Bernard Hopkins:

Age - Bernard has defied the odds of reality for quite some time now. I remember hearing before the Trinidad fight that Tito would knock him out because he was finally going to get "old overnight". Well that was in 2001...its 2008 and we are still waiting for it to happen. He is now 43 years old, and he cant keep sticking it to nature forever, can he???

Stamina - With advanced age, comes declining physical traits...most notably stamina. Since his move up to LHW, Hopkins has shown a new life...new legs so to say. He looks fresher...stronger...livelier...kinda lends credance to him saying before the first Taylor fight that he could no longer make 160 comfortably and he would be moving up afterward (only staying because he felt he won). But against a fighter like Calzaghe, Hopkins is going to have to work extra hard...use his lateral movement more...defend more...throw more. Will this finally be the night all of that catches up with him???

Workrate - Hopkins thrives at making the opponent fight his fight...something that Calzaghe also does. Hopkins fight tho, is using the ring, waiting on openings and attacking...whether it be on a counter or a lead (or a headbutt....FPRIVATE "TYPE=PICT;ALT=" ). Calzaghe is going to try to make Bernard work...he will try to slow it down and make Joe fight his fight. I think we will see early who's dictating the fight...and who's workrate will be on display (Hopkins' economical accuracy or Joe's all out buzzsaw style...).

Joe Calzaghe:

Enviroment - This is Joe's first fight on US soil...and he is fighting a legend. Throughout Calzaghe's reign (most of it at least) he has enjoyed the luxury of having the crowd at his disposal. Being able to ignite the crowd into a fervor with one exciting combination. Tonight, tho he has a large following who came over with him...he will not enjoy this same luxury (it will be worse if the fans act in the way Hatton's fans did....). He will be the "away team". Never underestimate how important this is.

Inside fighting - Tho Joe has a wonderful inside game...he is now fighting a fighter who can make that a disadvantage to anyone. And even tho Calzaghe CAN hold his own in there...he has shown that he can also struggle if the fight is kept in the "trenches" so to say. If this fight gets dirty...gets rough...this could be very detrimental to Joe's chances. Bika enjoyed some success doing this...and Bika will NEVER be confused for Bernard Hopkins.

Defense - Calzaghe's offense is his defense. He throws in bunches as to not allow others to throw back. He uses angles well, but when using his in and out movement (go watch the Lacy fight to see what I mean...) he opens up and is very upright. There is also one MAJOR and I MEAN MAJOR thing that I noticed after doing all of this research. And its a HUGE reason for my choice of Bernard.

I was watching Calzaghe's open media session in Vegas. It was impressive looking, but technically flawed. He threw alot of shots flatfooted and was very upright at times. But it was pad work, so I shook all of that off, knowing that throughout his career he has been known to be anything but flatfooted...anything but upright (except for the times in which I noted above). There was one thing that I had never noticed before (and we are talking about a HUGE Calzaghe fan...seen pretty much every fight he has been in...been a fan since his Eubank fight...and I didnt notice this...EVER)...one huge weakness.

When throwing one punch at a time...he keeps his guard perfect. Right jab goes out...left hand guards....left hand goes...right hand guards. Textbook defense. BUT, when he goes to throw a combination (without a lead jab), he drops both hands....and I dont mean to throw...I mean he does it about a second BEFORE he throws. Its kinda like a "tell" in poker. Well, Im watching this, thinking...oh, Ive never seen it before, its probably the same as with the upright throwing and the flatfooted movement of the pad work....but I went back and checked. I watched the Kessler fight....and it was there. I watched the Lacy fight...and it was there. I watched the Bika fight...and it was there. I watched the Mitchell fight...and it was there. I watched the Eubank fight....and it was there. You could set your watch to it....if his hands dropped, he threw a combo...if he threw one punch at a time, he kept his guard up.

It was plain as day.

Watch the workout...
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Watch vs Kessler...
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Vs Lacy...
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Vs Mitchell...
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I think you get my point on this.

Now in all seriousness, with Joe's speed and athleticism, if a normal fighter were to see something like this...by the time they would react, they would have a couple gloves in their face. For a fighter to take advantage of something like this...they would need great ring intellect to see it, great accuracy to land and otherworldly timing to be able to throw into the opening at the right time. What fighter...of ANY of in the game does that describe best???

Now ask yourself something...if I NOTICED THIS...what are the chance Bernard did not??? I always felt that he saw something...some type of kink in Calzaghe's armor...something that has never been exploited before. I mean, at this stage in his career and life...to take such a high risk fight (tho definately high reward as well) tells me he thinks he can win...tells me he KNOWS he can win. Hopkins is too smart a fighter...to smart a buisinessman to take a fight he had no chance in (I believe McGrain made a post asking this EXACT question. I believe this is that hole...this is that weakness. Its always been there, but Joe has never fought a fighter who had the skillset to exploit it. I believe he has met that fighter.

 

-How I see it going-

I see the first few rounds being "feel out rounds" for both fighters. They both (regardless of how they have portrayed it in the media) have enormous respect for each other...so I see Joe coming out tentative....not throwing as much as usual. I think this will play into Bernard's hands. He will leave himself open for the lead right when looking for an opening that never seems to come (remember, Joe has never fought a fighter with half of the defensive abilities Bernard has). Bernard will use his lateral movement to circle the ring, keeping Joe off balance and unable to throw in bunches or with much power. And when Joe does set and go to unleash, I see him being countered....or hit as he drops his hands starting his combo.

Bernard will build a lead....tho I dont expect it to be a big one.

Joe is too athletic and talented to keep off balance all night...he will be able to outwork Bernard on a few occasions, as Bernard takes some time off to conserve energy (he will have to slow his lateral movement down). I see Hopkins and Calzaghe going back and forth to a point where its close, but where Hopkins has a clear advantage. Joe will then feel like he has to make the fight his fight. He will look to up his intensity (much like he did vs Kessler while the fight was close...).

When Joe does this, he likes to try to smother his opponent. Or "spoil the other fighters boxing" like it was referred to vs Kessler. He will do this and enter the lion's den. This is where Bernard NEEDS the fight to take place. The fight will get dirty (leading to the Calzaghe fanatics on here to call for Bernard to be DQ'd...)...the fight will get rough...and the fight will start to sway toward Bernard. Lots of lead rights, left uppercuts, clinches, hitting on clinches, headbutts, etc.

At this point, I can see Joe trying to again take the fight to the outside. Using his in and out movement he loves to do (where he is most vulnerable defensively). After a few times of doing this...he will get caught CLEANLY with Bernard's best shot coming in. Joe will be off balance and get dropped (as he has in the past). Flash KD and he will not be hurt (as I dont think Bernard has the power to do so severely...Joe's chin, like Hopkins' is phenominal). Im predicting this happens around round 8-10...by which time Hopkins ALWAYS has his opponents timed to a tee.

The fight will then go back to being rough, dirty and on the inside. Hopkins will land his counters...Joe will have his moments where he just simply outworks and overwelms Bernard. The fight will end.

8 - 4 Bernard....116-111 (because of the KD).

Scorecards will be varied...and HOPEFULLY the judges get it right.

 

Sorry its so long guys...but I did ALOT of research on this one (I actually had to make it SMALLER!!! LOL)

I hope you guys enjoy it!!!

 

I do actually...but I wanted to focus on things that are either weaknesses or strengths to each fighter. I think Hopkins movement and ability to counter the jab so well kinda cancels it out actually.

There were about 3 other sections I broke down that had to go the way of the dinosaur because this ****ing thing was too damn long...

 

I think Bernard is a better body puncher actually (more accurate and sneaky with it)...but Calzaghe is just more powerful to the body.

Like I said...had alot of stuff covered I had to leave out so I didnt put people to sleep while reading.