The DEFINATIVE Joe Calzaghe -vs- Bernard Hopkins Analysis!!!

Liver hook by Hopkins will put him down. Could be a liver hook head butt.

 

great analysis I also Agree with your prediction but I think the fight will end up with a bigger lead for hopkins

 

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Here's my take:

B-Hop will make one last run and take off the 0 from Joe Calzaghe. Both guys had lengthy reigns and considered one of the best in their respective kingdoms. The main difference will be experience. Most people borders on JoeCal because they believe Hops will be too old and won't keep up with the pace JoeCal will set. They will be surprised at how impotent JoeCal will look and how easily Hops straight right finds their mark each and everytime. Joe will be a sucker to Hops waiting game and dip-duck along the ropes, and when he tries to press the issue, he'll get tagged before he can react. Hops by decision.

 

i think the analysis is making the assumption that the boxers will stay the same i.e the faults etc... i expect joe to bring a new game (bhop is different fighter then anyone he has faced before) and use his speed and ring smarts to carry him through. And do you believe joe will get a flash knockdown? please i think it be to tight for that, calzaghe by UD

 

4 factors make me think Calzaghe won't content himself with outjabbing Hopkins, outboxing him from the outside.

1) Joe and Enzo Calzaghe made a lot of promises in COUNTLESS interviews that they were coming to fight... Joe's got fans to please, Bernard doesn't. Joe cares about giving a good spectacle (Bika fight), Bernard doesn't.

2) Joe is an emotional guy (Enzo is even worse, it really runs in the family) and does not have the discipline of a Bernard Hopkins. If he gets headbutted, hit low, hit on the break, etc. he will get pissed, if he feels the show's getting boring he will make it a fight, if he gets embarassed by a couple of Hopkins counters, he will seek to hit Hopkins back and will probably get careless.

3) This is his first fight in America, the biggest fight of his career, and he'll have 10 000 Brits/Welsch fans with HIGH expectations cheering for him (but also creating a lot of pressure for him to give a good show).

4) Bernard Hopkins: Bernard simply does not fight the fight he doesn't want to fight. When you sign the contract to fight Bernard, you are basically agreeing to fight a grueling, not crowd pleasing, fight. Why do you think Joe and Enzo have been BEGGING Hopkins to fight like a champion in there? Because they know that Bernard will not give a **** about spectacle and that Joe will have to create the excitement.

Because of the 4 factors above, I think Calzaghe will have to ASSUME the role of the aggressor and will simply not be able to revert back to boxing/jabbing. I think the boxing/jabbing plan is the best for Calzaghe, but he won't be able to assume that role tonight.

50% of the fight is to make the other guy fight your fight. All of Hopkins comments were aimed at pressuring Joe to assume the role of the aggressor. Hopkins is one of the few fighters who's making millions without much of a fanbase. Moreover, the fans he has understand his style and appreciate his "boring" fights... so really he's not facing any pressure. British fans are crazy about workrate, knockouts, and the rest... they will be thirsty for blood and Calzaghe's been promising them just that. Well he'll have to deliver on those promises... and that will be his downfall.

 

Great analysis Sues2nd. Well worth the wait.

 

Thx for taking the time man.

 

Mate ESB should be paying you for articles on the home page..I have yet to read a better analysis of the fight.

It looks like the punters agree with you as there is money coming for BHop now. I just checked on ko-odds again and Calzaghe is out to 1.42 with a number of bookies.

thanks again

BC

 

great analysis, although i think its too short imo - i'd love to see EVERYTHING you noticed.. in any fight one punch is enough to change everything, no matter what the odds, how badly beaten you are, how long left (see jcc/taylor - although im not saying the fight will be remotely similar). if you noticed something, feels something is even remotely relevant - say it, it all adds up to stuff - (i prefer longer reads haha).

anyway, like decebal said i do feel you're taking something away from calzaghe here. for me, one poster said (im ashamed to say i cant remember who), that during the run up to the kessler fight, that if there was any advice to give to an opponent of joe it was thus - (sic) "To beat him you must be more afraid to lose than he is" Joe will do ANYTHING not to lose. if it means changing styles twice a round all night, he'll do it. if it means throwing everything away and going back to his natural instinct which is to smash the other guy as often, as fast, and as hard as he can - he will. if it means limiting himself to jab, jab, jab, jab all night only, he'll do it - he wants to put on a show. but he wants to win more, far more.

i must admit though, ever since this fight was signed, i always wondered why b-hop took this fight, its one that realistically, i dont think even in his incredibly immodest mind does he think he is that much better than joe, and i think logically even he really expects to lose UNLESS he has seen something that meant joe was there for the taking, he's talking about knocking joe out, and i dont think even the most ridiculous of nuthuggers in Rumsfeld or Sebastien truly believes that is his real plan. So your theory on the hand dropping might well be that weakness. BUT, as i said, joe surely must realise something if he is being read like a childrens book in big bold letters - surely he'll mix it up more and more, and with his extra speed, surely that gives him the edge over hopkins, you can have all the timing in the world but if your body is not fast enough to do what the mind says, theres not much you can do about it.

i havent watched any of hopkins fights - its hard to find any full ones on youtube, and the only full JC fights i've seen are Ashira, Lacy, Bika and Kessler.

but i have watched highlight vids (gives me some idea - although i do put it into perspective).

I seriously think that the most likely event is for joe to make b-hop do the work, get him active, even if it means dropping a few rounds, only when bhop starts to show any fatigue, at his age he must show some, joe has the stamina to really bombard bhop for the rest of the rounds with shots from every where. bhop can tag jo - he'll be left open, but for every one shot he gets thru, cal will get 10 on him. cal has the chin to take bhops shots, and personally, i think he can make bhop actually age mid fight, to the point we see a late stoppage.

 

How could any "boxing" fan not have viewed at least one full Bernard Hopkins fight is beyond me.
To then attempt to write an analysis is insane. :good

 

Maybe he's young and only a new fan and hasn't had time to put together a 3000 fight collection?

 

3000 fight collection?
Me neither.

 

Well done, thanks for that. Good read, now lets see what happens. I couldnt bring myself to bet against Hopkins...bring it on!!!