If Fury is in shape and prepared I think he will win at least fairly easily. If he is not I can see a scenario where Usyk will get the decision and it could well be controversial. Usyk will be totally ready and have a good game plan - Fury is the wild card. Fury is the favorite but Usyk is a very live underdog.
There is a real possibility that Fury-Usyk could be a Hagler-Leonard like fight that will be endlessly debated.
If it's the same Fury that just fought Wilder, then yes. If it's the Fury from Wilder 2. I give the edge to Fury. Fury is just as quick as Usyk if he's fit, and he can go the same pace for 12 rounds, Usyk cannot. Usyk will get smothered by 260lbs and he wont be able to hit hard enough to worry Fury. I don't see Usyk surviving 12 rounds vs Fury.
The best thing about that fight is that we know Usyk has the skill advantage and unlike AJ Fury seems to have a sufficient combination of skills and size to overcome it. It's a tasty ass matchup, very even for me.