How past prime do you think he was? Was he at least 80% of his former self?? Maybe 90%?? I think Tyson would’ve always been a bad matchup for him. Would that Mike always have KOed him like that? Most likely not. But I do think Prime Tyson beats him 7/10 times do to the speed and power and underrated boxing ability. Holmes was good no doubt but there are bad stylistic matchups for him throughout history.
He was in the 70-80 range when he fought Spinks IMO - he would've been lucky to even be 60 coming off a 2 year layoff after that.
He was considerably past his prime I can't put a percentage on it but I agree Tyson is always a very tough match up for him. You have to remember Cus D'Amato was specifically training Tyson to beat Holmes to counter over his sometimes lazy left with the counter right hand and that's what actually happened in their fight. Its also telling that Holmes was never stopped again after losing to Tyson so that is quite significant even though Holmes was past his best. I do think though a prime Holmes has a better chance of weathering the storm and if he gets past the 6th round his chances of winning increase as Tyson wasn't known to stop opponents late on. But I would make Tyson a favourite over any version of Holmes and I'm a big fan of Holmes so no bias from me.
I recently for the first time in 36 years saw the Tyson Holmes 4th round knockdown from a different tv angle and believe me the brutality of the beating Tyson inflicted according to the new tv camera angle in the knockdown and knockout was quite horrific to behold. Holmes was pushed back into mid air like a reverse long jump for the first knockdown and in the second his body went limp and he fell like a 225lbs sack of potatoes. It looked like a video game knockout. I have always felt it was Tysons absolute best victory along with the Spinks and Tubbs ones a few months either side. I think the manner of the loss is still shocking. It is also testament to the unworldly power Tyson wielded in his first career 85-91. Holmes definitely took the fight on short notice, was coming off his longest layoff thus far of 23 months and was definitely 10-12 lbs at least overweight The question than becomes if Holmes had stayed training and active between April 86 and March 88 would the outcome be different? Hypothetically lets say Holmes has a 4 month rest after Spinks 2 than returns in October 86 and between than and December 87 fights 5 times. Versus say a Reggie Gross,Greg Page, Dwight Qawi ,Alfonso Ratcliff and Bert Cooper and stays around 220-222 lbs . Sure I think he does better ...by being able to move better, have faster more honed reflexes and timing.Im trying to not apply hindsight but surely Holmes would look at the Smith fight and realise tying up his man and pulling the trigger on his right would serve him well. I see the first 8 rounds relatively even and very competitive until a peak Tyson unleashes a huge right hand at 57 seconds of the 9th and than sudden administers a prolonged violent salvo disturbing in its length similar to what Pinklon Thomas took in the 6th and the third eventual knockdown would be conclusive
He wasn't as washed up as some say. Holyfield had decent pop and stopped a 30 year old Douglas, 25 year old Bert Cooper and even a 30 year old Mike Tyson, but couldn't stop a 42 year old Holmes. Ray Mercer was a pretty hard puncher who absolutely flattened into oblivion a prime Tommy Morrison, but couldn't come close to stopping a Holmes that was 20 years older than Morrison. A 38 year old Holmes likely has a closer fight with Holyfield and even more convincingly outboxes Mercer. Almost certainly beats McCall.
He was certainly past his prime by then, but what really well against him the time off from Spinks 2 . And not really sure how seriously Larry took training in a fight he knew he had no chance of winning.
He was about 65 to 70%. It was a near two year layoff (after losing by a hair and then getting robbed). 1980 Holmes has a terrible time with prime Tyson...until he figures him out (and Larry was awfully good at doing that in his prime). Jab and hold, jab and hold, jab twice and try a right then hold. Larry was an impressive inside fighter (see the Berbick fight), which means Mike would be foiled again and again coming in. I can see Holmes getting terribly shaken in the early rounds, even knocked down. But the young Larry would do what the older aimed at and missed: keeping him at bay until past the fourth round. I see Holmes really zeroing in with the jab, and doing what Lewis copied from him decades later: unleashing the uppercut if Mike slips the jab and keeps coming in (which he was wont to do). Larry certainly didn't hit as hard as Lewis, but he did have a lot of snap in that uppercut and it ends up forcing Iron Mike to fight more cautiously, always a terribly less effective move for him. Mike gets drunk then mugged with Holmes' typical finishing avalanche-of-rights by the 9th round. I just can't see Mike getting past Holmes' always-superior ring IQ. Holmes was so good at parrying, rolling, and shouldering punches, twisting his opponent off balace and whacking that eevil jab... it's what Buster Douglas dreamed of being in 1990.